TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131302
Played Sep 15Finished
Serhii Chuhai
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119113––––
Maksym Baday
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 56 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Maksym Baday at 66.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 66–146 Maksym Baday Serhii Chuhai has won 66 of their 212 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Baday
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-146 in 212
Baday
Wrong
gap of 80 in 212, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1820 vs Baday 1916
Baday
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 60% vs Baday 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 70% vs Baday 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai +1 · Baday +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Baday)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 2.63 / Baday 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Baday)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131302
Chuhai2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 65 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Baday1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite76% won 228 of 302
Up 2–0, closes it98% 123 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it87% 171 of 197
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai2wins
AwayBaday8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhain = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaday87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai2Baday8n = 10Baday took 8 of 10
S2Chuhai4Baday6n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S3Chuhai5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S4Chuhai1Baday6n = 7Baday took 6 of 7
S5Chuhai2Baday3n = 5Baday took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiBadayC − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.741.5−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 954 vs 549 / 72751.4%75.5%490 / 954 vs 549 / 727Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayChuhai 2.63/Baday 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:30S. Chuhai32611781M. Baday4211911113
LSep 1 · 16:30S. Chuhai269890M. Baday331111113
LAug 21 · 16:30S. Chuhai4281111572M. Baday51119911113
LAug 20 · 14:00S. Chuhai2791080M. Baday341112113
WAug 18 · 13:00S. Chuhai51119127123M. Baday497111011102
WAug 13 · 16:30S. Chuhai41511113113M. Baday4111391172
LAug 11 · 16:30S. Chuhai43110111292M. Baday461112210113
LAug 6 · 13:00S. Chuhai4171111842M. Baday44112911113
LAug 4 · 16:30S. Chuhai226880M. Baday331111113
LJul 30 · 16:30S. Chuhai22112271M. Baday4291111113
S. Chuhai10
LSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday1.5011119123S. Chuhai2.505611101WSep 15 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.63111111113I. Fedoryshyn1.44513941LSep 15 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.101168111A. Kasyanov1.6791111133LSep 11 · 17:29S. Chuhai3.50541171R. Ivanov1.2811115113WSep 11 · 16:00A. Kasyanov1.67811781S. Chuhai2.1011911113WSep 11 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5311411972S. Chuhai2.38611411113WSep 11 · 13:00M. Hubenko2.755790S. Chuhai1.401111113LSep 11 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.28111547113S. Chuhai3.50713111162WSep 9 · 11:00S. Chuhai1.33111111113O. Ziakun3.25613771WSep 9 · 09:00D. Kuzmenko6.506490S. Chuhai1.101111113
M. Baday10
WSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday1.5011119123S. Chuhai2.505611101WSep 15 · 13:30M. Baday1.331111811113A. Kasyanov3.2585111342LSep 15 · 12:30M. Baday1.67371641I. Fedoryshyn2.10111114113LSep 8 · 17:34A. Kasyanov3.25148811113M. Baday1.33121111262WSep 8 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011911113S. Chuhai2.75611781WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baday1.201111113A. Lushchyk4.334680LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890
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