TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119140
Played Sep 12Finished
Michal Oracz
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012119811––
Filip Witczak
Away
1.87
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Witczak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
8111012119811––
H2H Michal Oracz 28–25 Filip Witczak Filip Witczak has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Witczak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-25 in 53
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1434 vs Witczak 1398
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Witczak 40%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Witczak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Witczak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witczak form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.83 / Witczak 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13119140
Oracz1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 110 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it92% 67 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Witczak1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwayWitczak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz80%4 of 5
AwayWitczak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Witczak5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz4Witczak6n = 10Witczak took 6 of 10
S3Oracz4Witczak6n = 10Witczak took 6 of 10
S4Oracz5Witczak1n = 6Oracz took 5 of 6
S5Oracz1Witczak2n = 3Witczak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczWitczakO − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.036.9+1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczWitczakBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 520 vs 266 / 47761.9%55.8%322 / 520 vs 266 / 477Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.83/Witczak 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Witczak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 07:55M. Oracz401113163F. Witczak32711140
WAug 29 · 14:20M. Oracz43111011113F. Witczak26512541
LAug 29 · 09:30M. Oracz2313640F. Witczak371511113
WAug 23 · 13:55M. Oracz43111011113F. Witczak33912661
LAug 23 · 10:40M. Oracz46511811112F. Witczak52119118133
LAug 15 · 15:30M. Oracz197480F. Witczak331111113
LAug 15 · 09:30M. Oracz279990F. Witczak331111113
LMay 9 · 13:55M. Oracz511181011112F. Witczak49711126133
WMay 9 · 10:20M. Oracz4311117143F. Witczak324511121
WApr 25 · 15:05M. Oracz45611116113F. Witczak4211761172
M. Oracz10
LSep 12 · 12:45M. Lach1.8311115113M. Oracz1.81991161LSep 12 · 11:55M. Oracz1.808240W. Wojtaszczyk1.901111113WSep 12 · 10:20M. Oracz1.861111153M. Lach1.8073130WSep 12 · 09:05M. Oracz1.8011112123J. Wieczerzak1.909511101WSep 12 · 07:55M. Oracz1.731113163F. Witczak1.92711140LSep 12 · 06:45D. Morawiec2.00111011113M. Oracz1.67912791LSep 12 · 05:55M. Oracz1.90512531W. Wojtaszczyk1.76111011113WSep 6 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.8310770M. Oracz1.861211113LSep 6 · 15:55M. Oracz2.006860W. Wojtaszczyk1.711111113LSep 6 · 14:45R. Piechnik1.501114113M. Oracz2.5091270
F. Witczak10
LSep 12 · 13:10D. Morawiec1.8511116123F. Witczak1.856911101LSep 12 · 11:30M. Lach1.831111113F. Witczak1.836970WSep 12 · 10:40J. Wieczerzak1.831157101F. Witczak1.8681111123WSep 12 · 09:55W. Wojtaszczyk1.77119741F. Witczak1.9591111113LSep 12 · 07:55M. Oracz1.731113163F. Witczak1.92711140WSep 12 · 07:10M. Lach1.9011119992F. Witczak1.80981111113LSep 12 · 05:30D. Morawiec1.8611811123F. Witczak1.807118101WAug 29 · 17:05F. Witczak1.351111113R. Adach2.855750WAug 29 · 15:30F. Witczak1.9011116113K. Slawinski1.80371181LAug 29 · 14:20F. Witczak1.83512541M. Oracz1.86111011113
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