TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13066409
Played Sep 2Finished
Marcin Kowalczyk
Home
1.74
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112114811114––
Miroslaw Piecowski
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Piecowski to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
112114811114––
H2H Marcin Kowalczyk 17–17 Miroslaw Piecowski Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:29What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Kowalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalczyk 1267 vs Piecowski 1251
Kowalczyk
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalczyk 40% vs Piecowski 60%
Piecowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalczyk 50% vs Piecowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalczyk +1 · Piecowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Kowalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalczyk 1.74 / Piecowski 1.95
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kowalczyk)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13066409
Kowalczyk1.74
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 109 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it74% 94 of 127
Piecowski1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 115 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back25% 37 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalczyk5wins
AwayPiecowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalczyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayPiecowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalczyk7Piecowski3n = 10Kowalczyk took 7 of 10
S2Kowalczyk7Piecowski3n = 10Kowalczyk took 7 of 10
S3Kowalczyk3Piecowski7n = 10Piecowski took 7 of 10
S4Kowalczyk4Piecowski3n = 7Kowalczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalczykPiecowskiK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.2+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalczykPiecowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1500 vs 515 / 115948.7%44.4%730 / 1500 vs 515 / 1159Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykKowalczyk 1.74/Piecowski 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 22:35M. Kowalczyk—1111123M. Piecowski—67100
WAug 26 · 16:55M. Kowalczyk—11115113M. Piecowski—971181
LAug 17 · 21:05M. Kowalczyk—910111192M. Piecowski—111263113
LAug 17 · 16:55M. Kowalczyk—87110M. Piecowski—1111133
LAug 13 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk—11117472M. Piecowski—881111113
WAug 10 · 23:20M. Kowalczyk—11134113M. Piecowski—6111181
LAug 10 · 20:30M. Kowalczyk—1111671M. Piecowski—71311113
WAug 6 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk—1111113M. Piecowski—9380
WAug 3 · 23:20M. Kowalczyk—11118113M. Piecowski—641181
LAug 3 · 20:30M. Kowalczyk—9111071M. Piecowski—11612113
M. Kowalczyk10
WSep 3 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.54811116113K. Golaszewski2.3511981192WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.86111159113K. Sulkowski1.8084111192WSep 3 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.751111113W. Gluszek1.904460WSep 3 · 16:15M. Trela1.6531011121M. Kowalczyk2.0611124143LSep 3 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.5591141182J. Rolak1.44117118113LSep 2 · 23:20M. Piecowski1.831114113M. Kowalczyk1.8691270WSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113WSep 2 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk1.66118311113W. Gluszek2.0561111482LSep 2 · 21:05M. Piecowski1.9081111113M. Kowalczyk1.75119861LSep 2 · 20:30M. Piecowski1.86111011113M. Kowalczyk1.83912691
M. Piecowski10
LSep 3 · 24:10M. Piecowski1.34111578113M. Piecowski2.90713111192LSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113WSep 2 · 22:55M. Piecowski1.7581111113W. Gluszek1.95118371WSep 2 · 21:05M. Piecowski1.9081111113M. Kowalczyk1.75119861WSep 2 · 20:05W. Gluszek2.105750M. Piecowski1.601111113LSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182WSep 2 · 16:35P. Strus1.6761114452M. Piecowski2.031191211113WSep 2 · 15:00M. Piecowski1.471112991M. Piecowski2.45131011113WSep 1 · 24:10B. Wisniewski1.603950M. Piecowski2.151111113LAug 31 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.9811116972B. Mrugala1.73991111113
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