TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13057308
Played Sep 1Finished
Artur Sobel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121412107111171210
Jakub Zochniak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:43 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
106 points played in total.
Set by set
121412107111171210
H2H Artur Sobel 34–34 Jakub Zochniak Dead even across their 68 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:43What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-34 in 68
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1522 vs Zochniak 1579
Zochniak
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 80% vs Zochniak 40%
Sobel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 60% vs Zochniak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +2 · Zochniak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zochniak) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zochniak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.80 / Zochniak 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zochniak)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13057308
Sobel1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 178 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it77% 128 of 166
Zochniak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 159 of 463
Down 0–1, comes back13% 35 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel5wins
AwayZochniak5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel50%2 of 4
AwayZochniak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel4Zochniak6n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S2Sobel6Zochniak4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S3Sobel4Zochniak6n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S4Sobel6Zochniak4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S5Sobel3Zochniak3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelZochniakS − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.847.7−1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelZochniakBasisWin rate · lifetime632 / 1181 vs 1189 / 225753.5%52.7%632 / 1181 vs 1189 / 2257Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZochniakSobel 1.80/Zochniak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zochniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:15A. Sobel—1212711123J. Zochniak—1410117102
LAug 31 · 05:35A. Sobel—11813101J. Zochniak—91115123
LAug 25 · 03:00A. Sobel—661171J. Zochniak—11119113
LAug 18 · 03:40A. Sobel—9111014102J. Zochniak—1181212123
WAug 11 · 10:35A. Sobel—313911113J. Zochniak—111111782
WAug 11 · 04:50A. Sobel—111011113J. Zochniak—912991
LAug 10 · 10:35A. Sobel—111356132J. Zochniak—9111111153
WAug 4 · 09:50A. Sobel—1011123113J. Zochniak—126101172
LJun 30 · 11:00A. Sobel—911911112J. Zochniak—118119133
WJun 2 · 24:35A. Sobel—11811123J. Zochniak—9119101
A. Sobel10
LSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112LSep 7 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.471112133A. Sobel2.45610110WSep 7 · 06:00A. Sobel2.60121111113K. Wisniewski1.42149591WSep 7 · 04:25A. Sobel2.2011116113D. Solilo1.57221111WSep 7 · 03:40M. Minda1.95711101182A. Sobel1.76119129113LSep 1 · 14:20A. Sobel1.9311128992K. Rudomina1.775101111113LSep 1 · 12:40P. Blocho2.001111113A. Sobel1.709830LSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 11:00A. Sobel1.937811111B. Czerwinski1.7811118133WSep 1 · 09:50A. Sobel1.712111111113S. Brud1.9711135942
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101WSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562
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