TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12475768
Played Aug 23Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118115911911
Amirreza Abbasi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeAmirreza Abbasi to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Amirreza Abbasi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Amirreza Abbasi at 62.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 14–17 Amirreza Abbasi Maciej Nowalinski has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Abbasi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Abbasi
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1678 vs Abbasi 1912
Abbasi
Correct
both rated, 234 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 20% vs Abbasi 60%
Abbasi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 40% vs Abbasi 60%
Abbasi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski -2 · Abbasi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Abbasi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 2.10 / Abbasi 1.67
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Abbasi)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12475768
Nowalinski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 134 of 362
Down 0–1, comes back18% 37 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 95
Abbasi1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 76 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it89% 58 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski6wins
AwayAbbasi4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNowalinski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski85.7%6 of 7
AwayAbbasi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski7Abbasi3n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S2Nowalinski6Abbasi4n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S3Nowalinski5Abbasi5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowalinski2Abbasi5n = 7Abbasi took 5 of 7
S5Nowalinski3Abbasi2n = 5Nowalinski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiAbbasiN − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.6+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiAbbasiBasisWin rate · lifetime826 / 1712 vs 215 / 45848.3%46.9%826 / 1712 vs 215 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbbasiNowalinski 2.10/Abbasi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Abbasi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Abbasi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 6 · 10:00M. Nowalinski—11780A. Abbasi—1311113
LMay 17 · 15:35M. Nowalinski—991111132A. Abbasi—111178153
WMay 2 · 05:05M. Nowalinski—1213613113A. Abbasi—1011111582
WApr 30 · 15:35M. Nowalinski—111178113A. Abbasi—86111192
WApr 29 · 10:45M. Nowalinski—1111153A. Abbasi—96130
WApr 5 · 10:45M. Nowalinski—11129113A. Abbasi—8101151
WOct 19 · 12:25M. Nowalinski—129115113A. Abbasi—101141142
LOct 17 · 13:40M. Nowalinski—711781A. Abbasi—11611113
WOct 3 · 12:00M. Nowalinski—1111103A. Abbasi—7650
LSep 19 · 14:30M. Nowalinski—12611782A. Abbasi—1011711113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
A. Abbasi10
LSep 2 · 16:59A. Abbasi6.004940V. Ursu1.111111113WSep 2 · 16:02A. Abbasi2.2511911113J. Park1.579111051WAug 30 · 17:00A. Abbasi—11114113P. Zatowka—461161LAug 29 · 17:15O. Kveton—131131163A. Abbasi—15911142WAug 29 · 16:45S. Belik—7550A. Abbasi—1111113LAug 28 · 18:18A. Abbasi1.736340M. Bobocica2.001111113LAug 28 · 17:32K. Zhou1.371211123A. Abbasi2.80109100WAug 23 · 13:20S. Dosz2.504119111A. Abbasi1.5011911133LAug 23 · 11:15P. David1.531611123A. Abbasi2.38144100WAug 23 · 10:25M. Miastowski2.3861170A. Abbasi1.531113113
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