TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444263
Played Aug 17Finished
Zdenek Kasinski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189111517911––
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hruska Sr to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Kasinski above · Vaclav Hruska Sr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 91 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vaclav Hruska Sr at 55.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Kasinski 9–10 Vaclav Hruska Sr Zdenek Kasinski has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kasinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasinski 1164 vs Sr 1225
Sr
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasinski 40% vs Sr 80%
Sr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasinski 40% vs Sr 60%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasinski -3 · Sr +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sr) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasinski 1.73 / Sr 2.00
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sr)+10.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444263
Kasinski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite27% won 4 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Sr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 86 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasinski4wins
AwaySr6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasinski66.7%4 of 6
AwaySr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasinski6Sr4n = 10Kasinski took 6 of 10
S2Kasinski5Sr5n = 10split evenly
S3Kasinski4Sr6n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S4Kasinski3Sr5n = 8Sr took 5 of 8
S5Kasinski1Sr2n = 3Sr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasinskiSrK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.0+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasinskiSrBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 155 vs 473 / 101845.8%46.5%71 / 155 vs 473 / 1018Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrKasinski 1.73/Sr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski—1191591V. Sr—81117113
LJul 21 · 11:00Z. Kasinski—10850V. Sr—1211113
LNov 4 · 21:30Z. Kasinski—481111102V. Sr—111169123
WNov 2 · 22:30Z. Kasinski—111111113V. Sr—981341
LNov 2 · 21:00Z. Kasinski—12712111V. Sr—141110133
WOct 28 · 18:00Z. Kasinski—13113113V. Sr—1181121
LOct 28 · 17:30Z. Kasinski—971181V. Sr—11119113
LOct 26 · 17:30Z. Kasinski—12118982V. Sr—1061111113
WOct 8 · 06:30Z. Kasinski—1112910113V. Sr—810111252
WSep 10 · 06:30Z. Kasinski—1111113V. Sr—7750
Z. Kasinski10
WSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.67114511113A. Hejduk2.1081111562WSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 28 · 13:00J. Cernik2.0010650Z. Kasinski1.731211113LAug 28 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.53115551L. Novotny2.3891111113LAug 28 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.73121210852J. Cernik2.0010101211113LAug 28 · 10:00J. Strnad2.6361111113Z. Kasinski1.44114871LAug 17 · 13:00J. Cernik2.0011112113Z. Kasinski1.73891191LAug 17 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.573330J. Cernik2.251111113
V. Sr10
WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880WSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Sr1.73119135123J. Grohsgott2.004111111102WSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113LAug 23 · 17:29M. Regner1.44971111113V. Sr2.6311119562LAug 23 · 16:30M. Regner1.44811511113V. Sr2.6311511452WAug 23 · 15:30V. Sr2.25111110113M. Syroha1.57341211WAug 23 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.1010680V. Sr1.671211113LAug 22 · 09:30M. Syroha1.44111251113V. Sr2.63810111162LAug 22 · 08:00M. Syroha1.531311113V. Sr2.3811180
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