TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434207
Played Aug 15Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
31191111789––
Jaroslav Peter
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Jaroslav Peter below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-9
Point 69 set 4, 8-9 — our read held Matyas Kolek at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 1–0 Jaroslav Peter Jaroslav Peter has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1454 vs Peter 1262
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 100% vs Peter 40%
Kolek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 90% vs Peter 20%
Kolek
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +5 · Peter +1
Kolek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.73 / Peter 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolek)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434207
Kolek1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it80% 48 of 60
Peter2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 5 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKolek1wins
AwayPeter0wins
Kolek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKolekPeterK − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.026.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekPeterBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 212 vs 33 / 9253.3%35.9%113 / 212 vs 33 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.73/Peter 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Peter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 14 · 19:00M. Kolek—1111143J. Peter—86120
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133
J. Peter10
WAug 28 · 21:28J. Peter1.331611113D. Kolek3.2514690WAug 28 · 20:00J. Peter1.571211113D. Kolek2.2510640WAug 28 · 19:30D. Tyn2.2511114582J. Peter1.57791111113WAug 28 · 18:00J. Peter2.1061111123Z. Zientek1.671178101LAug 15 · 17:28J. Peter2.633101161M. Levicky1.4411127103WAug 15 · 16:00D. Kolek1.73121060J. Peter2.001412113WAug 15 · 14:30J. Peter2.631061111113M. Levicky1.4412118782LAug 14 · 21:00J. Peter1.8311117852A. Schneeberger1.83741111113LAug 14 · 20:00D. Kolek1.8311126113J. Peter1.838101191LAug 14 · 19:00M. Kolek1.801111143J. Peter1.9186120
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