TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12425209
Played Aug 14Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181161412––––
Jaroslav Peter
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Jaroslav Peter below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 62 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Matyas Kolek at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 1–0 Jaroslav Peter Jaroslav Peter has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1420 vs Peter 1281
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Peter 20%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Peter 10%
Kolek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +2 · Peter +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Peter form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.80 / Peter 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12425209
Kolek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it79% 46 of 58
Peter1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog22% won 4 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKolek1wins
AwayPeter0wins
Kolek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKolekPeterK − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.026.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekPeterBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 210 vs 32 / 9052.9%35.6%111 / 210 vs 32 / 90Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.80/Peter 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 14 · 19:00M. Kolek—1111143J. Peter—86120
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133
J. Peter10
WAug 28 · 21:28J. Peter1.331611113D. Kolek3.2514690WAug 28 · 20:00J. Peter1.571211113D. Kolek2.2510640WAug 28 · 19:30D. Tyn2.2511114582J. Peter1.57791111113WAug 28 · 18:00J. Peter2.1061111123Z. Zientek1.671178101LAug 15 · 17:28J. Peter2.633101161M. Levicky1.4411127103WAug 15 · 16:00D. Kolek1.73121060J. Peter2.001412113WAug 15 · 15:00M. Kolek1.73391181J. Peter2.001111793WAug 15 · 14:30J. Peter2.631061111113M. Levicky1.4412118782LAug 14 · 21:00J. Peter1.8311117852A. Schneeberger1.83741111113LAug 14 · 20:00D. Kolek1.8311126113J. Peter1.838101191
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