TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Marco Stefanidis vs Manuel Kupfer 3-1 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Aug 13Finished
Marco Stefanidis
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1177111171210––
Manuel Kupfer
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeMarco Stefanidis to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1177111171210––
H2H Marco Stefanidis 1–1 Manuel Kupfer Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Stefanidis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefanidis 1551 vs Kupfer 1177
Stefanidis
Correct
both rated, 373 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefanidis 80% vs Kupfer 20%
Stefanidis
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefanidis 80% vs Kupfer 30%
Stefanidis
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefanidis +2 · Kupfer -4
Kupfer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefanidis) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kupfer form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefanidis 1.75 / Kupfer 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefanidis)+1.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412199
Stefanidis1.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kupfer1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStefanidis1wins
AwayKupfer1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStefanidisKupferS − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.537.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefanidisKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 172 vs 8 / 4239.5%19.1%68 / 172 vs 8 / 42Avg sets wonper match1.71.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.630.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefanidisStefanidis 1.75/Kupfer 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefanidis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stefanidis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 11 · 06:30M. Stefanidis31981131M. Kupfer4211119113
WJul 28 · 16:30M. Stefanidis4211119113M. Kupfer33951181
M. Stefanidis10
LSep 22 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.155370LSep 22 · 09:45R. Turrini1.401111113M. Stefanidis2.753930LSep 22 · 06:30O. Kosolosky1.0711119113M. Stefanidis6.50451121WSep 21 · 16:30S. Almeida2.26311771M. Stefanidis1.5811911113WSep 21 · 15:00A. Moreno3.771171091M. Stefanidis1.2391112113LSep 21 · 13:30M. Stefanidis1.83711641R. Turrini1.8911611113WSep 21 · 11:30M. Stefanidis1.401111118123C. Schmitt2.75139611102WSep 21 · 10:00M. Stefanidis—1111911153K. Zimmermann—961113132WSep 21 · 08:00S. Happek—8880M. Stefanidis—1111113LSep 11 · 10:40M. Stefanidis—4890T. Pellny—1111113
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113
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