TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12365537
Played Aug 5Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141012311116116
Ales Hanl
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Ales Hanl below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 85 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Stusek at 65.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 4–2 Ales Hanl Ales Hanl has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Stusek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1674 vs Hanl 1591
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Hanl 20%
Stusek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 50% vs Hanl 20%
Stusek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -1 · Hanl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanl form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.44 / Hanl 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Stusek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12365537
Stusek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 67 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Hanl2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 6 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStusek4wins
AwayHanl2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderStusek leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek80%4 of 5
AwayHanln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek5Hanl1n = 6Stusek took 5 of 6
S2Stusek3Hanl3n = 6split evenly
S3Stusek2Hanl4n = 6Hanl took 4 of 6
S4Stusek2Hanl1n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricStusekHanlS − HBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match35.831.2+4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekHanlBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 687 vs 10 / 2646.9%38.5%322 / 687 vs 10 / 26Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.44/Hanl 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 5 · 20:25M. Stusek—1110311113A. Hanl—41211662
WJul 14 · 18:55M. Stusek—1111153A. Hanl—29130
WJul 8 · 21:58M. Stusek—1111113A. Hanl—6670
LJul 8 · 20:55M. Stusek—117871A. Hanl—81111113
LMay 27 · 22:00M. Stusek—9840A. Hanl—1111113
WMay 27 · 19:55M. Stusek—111112113A. Hanl—541481
M. Stusek10
LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113
A. Hanl10
LAug 5 · 22:02P. Silhan1.671114113A. Hanl2.1091290LAug 5 · 20:55T. Vorisek1.80711112113A. Hanl1.9111461182LAug 5 · 19:25A. Hanl2.50118101182P. Silhan1.50711127113WJul 14 · 21:53O. Kadavy1.3081170A. Hanl3.401113113LJul 14 · 20:55A. Hanl2.106690O. Kadavy1.671111113LJul 14 · 19:55A. Hanl2.00111141092T. Vorisek1.73631112113LJul 14 · 18:55A. Hanl2.5029130M. Stusek1.501111153LJul 8 · 21:58A. Hanl2.206670M. Stusek1.611111113WJul 8 · 20:55M. Stusek1.67117871A. Hanl2.1081111113LJul 8 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.831111113A. Hanl1.836450
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