TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12361681
Played Aug 5Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Miloslav Hubka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:57 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Miloslav Hubka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Milan Smesny at 56.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 2–3 Miloslav Hubka Milan Smesny has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1190 vs Hubka 1120
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 40% vs Hubka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 50% vs Hubka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny -1 · Hubka -3
Hubka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.50 / Hubka 2.50
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (Smesny)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12361681
Smesny1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 54 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Hubka2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 7 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSmesny2wins
AwayHubka3wins
Hubka leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHubka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny2Hubka3n = 5Hubka took 3 of 5
S2Smesny2Hubka3n = 5Hubka took 3 of 5
S3Smesny3Hubka2n = 5Smesny took 3 of 5
S4Smesny1Hubka2n = 3Hubka took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSmesnyHubkaS − HBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match34.635.2−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyHubkaBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 390 vs 19 / 4450.3%43.2%196 / 390 vs 19 / 44Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.50/Hubka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.5%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJun 18 · 09:30M. Smesny—1191051M. Hubka—91112113
WJun 18 · 08:00M. Smesny—1111113M. Hubka—5380
LMay 26 · 12:59M. Smesny—7970M. Hubka—1111113
LMay 26 · 12:30M. Smesny—681381M. Hubka—111111113
WMay 4 · 11:00M. Smesny—131111123M. Hubka—1569101
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
M. Hubka10
WAug 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.80291181M. Hubka1.9111115113LAug 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.83117117113M. Hubka1.8341191152LAug 5 · 11:30M. Hubka1.91112591V. Stach1.8071111113LAug 5 · 08:59A. Tkachenko2.00118115113M. Hubka1.7331171172LAug 5 · 08:30A. Tkachenko2.201171011113M. Hubka1.6191112762LAug 5 · 07:30M. Hubka2.2078100J. Vrba1.611111123WAug 5 · 06:30V. Stach1.6711101211122M. Hubka2.10212148143WJun 18 · 13:30M. Hubka1.40111110133J. Koch2.759512111WJun 18 · 12:00J. Stary2.75115841M. Hubka1.4081111113WJun 18 · 11:00J. Jira2.639630M. Hubka1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny1 of 2 neutral
M. Hubka
Nothing scheduled
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