TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Karl Zimmermann vs Marcel Neumaier 2-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Aug 3Finished
Karl Zimmermann
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91112109111161214
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:05 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 105 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 55.8%
105 points played in total.
H2H Karl Zimmermann 0–1 Marcel Neumaier Karl Zimmermann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1544 vs Neumaier 1628
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 60% vs Neumaier 40%
Zimmermann
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 50% vs Neumaier 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +1 · Neumaier +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Neumaier)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 2.10 / Neumaier 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Neumaier)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351673
Zimmermann2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Neumaier1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZimmermann0wins
AwayNeumaier1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNeumaier leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZimmermannNeumaierZ − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match53.052.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 29 vs 56 / 10151.7%55.5%15 / 29 vs 56 / 101Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierZimmermann 2.10/Neumaier 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 3 · 06:30K. Zimmermann53912911122M. Neumaier521110116143
K. Zimmermann10
WSep 22 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.155370LSep 22 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—1111113K. Zimmermann—7510WSep 22 · 07:00R. Turrini1.1149100K. Zimmermann6.001111123WSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133LSep 21 · 14:30S. Almeida2.05116115113K. Zimmermann1.7061151162WSep 21 · 13:00C. Schmitt5.00651161K. Zimmermann1.1411119113LSep 21 · 11:00O. Kosolosky1.061111113K. Zimmermann8.008740LSep 21 · 10:00M. Stefanidis—1111911153K. Zimmermann—961113132WSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno3.25712521K. Zimmermann1.33111011113LSep 18 · 08:00D. Rinderer1.221111113K. Zimmermann4.002480
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920
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