TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Alex Moreno vs Michael Fuchs 2-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Jul 20Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116911117811711
Michael Fuchs
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeMichael Fuchs to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Michael Fuchs below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michael Fuchs at 72.3%
92 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Fuchs
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Moreno 20% vs Fuchs 0%
Moreno
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 10% vs Fuchs 30%
Fuchs
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -4 · Fuchs -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Fuchs)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fuchs form (0%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 3.40 / Fuchs 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Fuchs)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12265511
Moreno3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Fuchs1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoFuchsBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 108 vs 3 / 1014.8%30%16 / 108 vs 3 / 10Avg sets wonper match0.91.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FuchsMoreno 3.40/Fuchs 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Fuchs · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fuchs won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
A. Moreno10
LSep 22 · 08:00A. Moreno10.50510120R. Turrini1.021112143LSep 21 · 17:00A. Moreno2.105490C. Schmitt1.671111113LSep 21 · 15:00A. Moreno3.771171091M. Stefanidis1.2391112113LSep 21 · 14:00A. Moreno2.257980S. Happek1.571111113LSep 21 · 10:30A. Moreno—79120S. Almeida—1111143LSep 21 · 08:30A. Moreno8.506840O. Kosolosky1.051111113LSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno3.25712521K. Zimmermann1.33111011113LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113
M. Fuchs10
LJul 28 · 10:35M. Fuchs1.7037100K. Zimmermann2.001111123LJul 28 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—3M. Fuchs—0LJul 28 · 07:00K. Fadeev1.111191011113M. Fuchs6.0051112842LJul 27 · 17:30J. Loffler1.22111111113M. Fuchs3.75571381WJul 27 · 14:30N. Kizakisz—5450M. Fuchs—1111113LJul 27 · 13:00O. Kosolosky1.07111110113M. Fuchs7.50261261WJul 27 · 11:00S. Happek2.25681141M. Fuchs1.5711118113WJul 27 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.20911126122M. Fuchs1.611171011143LJul 27 · 06:30K. Zimmermann2.001212113M. Fuchs1.73101020LJul 27 · 06:30K. Zimmermann1.961212113M. Fuchs1.70101020
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