TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12265509
Played Jul 20Finished
Florian Bluhm
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511311––––
Matthias Danzer
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:01 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeFlorian Bluhm to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFlorian Bluhm above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 46 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Florian Bluhm at 66.5%
46 points played in total.
H2H Florian Bluhm 7–1 Matthias Danzer Matthias Danzer has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bluhm
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Bluhm
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bluhm 1920 vs Danzer 1858
Bluhm
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bluhm 40% vs Danzer 60%
Danzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bluhm 70% vs Danzer 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bluhm +1 · Danzer +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Bluhm) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danzer form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBluhm 1.36 / Danzer 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Bluhm)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12265509
Bluhm1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Danzer3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBluhm7wins
AwayDanzer1wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBluhm leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBluhm87.5%7 of 8
AwayDanzern = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bluhm8Danzer0n = 8Bluhm took 8 of 8
S2Bluhm6Danzer2n = 8Bluhm took 6 of 8
S3Bluhm5Danzer3n = 8Bluhm took 5 of 8
S4Bluhm1Danzer3n = 4Danzer took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricBluhmDanzerB − DBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set80+8of 8Avg pointsper match38.931.1+7.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBluhmDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 83 vs 190 / 25380.7%75.1%67 / 83 vs 190 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.62.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BluhmBluhm 1.36/Danzer 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Bluhm · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 16 · 11:00F. Bluhm—1171061M. Danzer—71112113
WJun 16 · 06:30F. Bluhm—17511113M. Danzer—1511881
WMay 7 · 17:30F. Bluhm—1111113M. Danzer—3940
WJan 12 · 11:00F. Bluhm—1111410113M. Danzer—86111282
WJun 2 · 07:00F. Bluhm—1111113M. Danzer—7750
WMay 13 · 07:00F. Bluhm—1111113M. Danzer—5810
WMar 11 · 10:45F. Bluhm—11121010113M. Danzer—710121242
WMar 10 · 10:30F. Bluhm—1111113M. Danzer—9990
F. Bluhm10
LJul 21 · 08:30F. Bluhm1.1111108111D. Rinderer6.0091211133WJul 21 · 06:30F. Bluhm1.041111113M. Fuchs9.007630WJul 20 · 12:30F. Bluhm1.44111112113D. Pinto2.63691431LJul 20 · 11:00F. Bluhm1.33411891A. Mino3.2511711113WJul 20 · 08:30A. Moreno12.005840F. Bluhm1.011111113LJul 20 · 07:00F. Bluhm—118971M. Stefanidis—51111113LJun 16 · 11:00F. Bluhm1.281171061M. Danzer3.5071112113WJun 16 · 09:15F. Bluhm1.371111113M. Echaveguren2.853450WJun 16 · 06:30M. Danzer3.251511881F. Bluhm1.3317511113WJun 15 · 16:30L. Kraus13.003660F. Bluhm1.011111113
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WJun 16 · 11:00F. Bluhm1.281171061M. Danzer3.5071112113LJun 16 · 06:30M. Danzer3.251511881F. Bluhm1.3317511113
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