TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12265501
Played Jul 21Finished
Florian Bluhm
Home
1.11
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11910128111113––
Daniel Rinderer
Away
6.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:01 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeDaniel Rinderer to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFlorian Bluhm above · Daniel Rinderer below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 85 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Daniel Rinderer at 54.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Florian Bluhm 2–0 Daniel Rinderer Daniel Rinderer has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Bluhm
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bluhm 1900 vs Rinderer 1850
Bluhm
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bluhm 60% vs Rinderer 100%
Rinderer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bluhm 60% vs Rinderer 80%
Rinderer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bluhm +1 · Rinderer +5
Rinderer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Bluhm) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rinderer form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBluhm 1.11 / Rinderer 6.00
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Bluhm)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12265501
Bluhm1.11
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Rinderer6.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBluhm2wins
AwayRinderer0wins
Bluhm leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBluhmRindererB − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.028.5+9.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBluhmRindererBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 84 vs 107 / 15579.8%69%67 / 84 vs 107 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.62.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BluhmBluhm 1.11/Rinderer 6.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
84.4%
Bluhm · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rinderer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 21 · 09:40F. Bluhm—1211113D. Rinderer—10890
WOct 20 · 10:30F. Bluhm—91111113D. Rinderer—118741
F. Bluhm10
WJul 21 · 06:30F. Bluhm1.041111113M. Fuchs9.007630LJul 20 · 16:00F. Bluhm1.365530M. Danzer3.001111113WJul 20 · 12:30F. Bluhm1.44111112113D. Pinto2.63691431LJul 20 · 11:00F. Bluhm1.33411891A. Mino3.2511711113WJul 20 · 08:30A. Moreno12.005840F. Bluhm1.011111113LJul 20 · 07:00F. Bluhm—118971M. Stefanidis—51111113LJun 16 · 11:00F. Bluhm1.281171061M. Danzer3.5071112113WJun 16 · 09:15F. Bluhm1.371111113M. Echaveguren2.853450WJun 16 · 06:30M. Danzer3.251511881F. Bluhm1.3317511113WJun 15 · 16:30L. Kraus13.003660F. Bluhm1.011111113
D. Rinderer10
WAug 21 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.37111210113S. Almeida2.854101261LAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150WAug 21 · 07:50E. Huzsvar1.191114101142D. Rinderer4.40316128113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113WAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:30M. Danzer1.731111113D. Rinderer2.006890WAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 20 · 07:00S. Almeida3.60811711123D. Rinderer1.25117115102WJul 24 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.201111113L. Kraus4.009680
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