TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Joon Shim vs Makoto Nogami 3-1 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Jun 25Finished
Joon Shim
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1513911115118––
Makoto Nogami
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingJoon Shim above · Makoto Nogami below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 83 set 4, 11-8
83 points played in total.
H2H Joon Shim 3–0 Makoto Nogami Makoto Nogami has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Shim)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shim form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShim 1.25 / Nogami 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Shim)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12089284
Shim1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Nogami3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeShim3wins
AwayNogami0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderShim leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shim2Nogami1n = 3Shim took 2 of 3
S2Shim1Nogami2n = 3Nogami took 2 of 3
S3Shim1Nogami2n = 3Nogami took 2 of 3
S4Shim3Nogami0n = 3Shim took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricShimNogamiS − NBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match46.739.3+7.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShimNogamiBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 88 vs 18 / 6858%26.5%51 / 88 vs 18 / 68Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.833.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShimShim 1.25/Nogami 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Shim · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shim won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMay 6 · 07:30J. Shim45111112113M. Nogami34861461
WApr 8 · 10:30J. Shim47118611113M. Nogami3851111562
WApr 7 · 10:30J. Shim48491111133M. Nogami46111194112
J. Shim10
LJul 21 · 21:10J. Shim—111150B. Haug—1313113WJul 21 · 14:00G. Slezynger—8570J. Shim—1111113LJun 30 · 10:40J. Shim2.008990D. Rinderer1.701111113LJun 30 · 09:13J. Shim1.838790K. Fadeev1.831111113WJun 30 · 07:30L. Kraus4.505650J. Shim1.171111113WJun 29 · 17:30J. Shim1.5021211113A. Itagaki2.501110991WJun 29 · 16:00O. Kosolosky1.536480J. Shim2.381111113LJun 29 · 14:00D. Rinderer1.671111123J. Shim2.1096100WJun 29 · 12:00J. Shim2.101111153K. Fadeev1.6778130WJun 29 · 09:30J. Shim1.40119118113S. Carrillo2.7561181142
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113
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