Mikolaj Olejnik vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #12033904

Played Jun 14Finished

Mikolaj Olejnik

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1174116111315––

Arkadiusz Mugowski

Away

1.91

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 4

How it is goingMikolaj Olejnik above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 13-15

Point 78 set 4, 13-15

78 points played in total.

H2H Mikolaj Olejnik 9–8 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 8 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mugowski)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Mugowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOlejnik 1.80 / Mugowski 1.91

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Mugowski)+5.5pp

TT Elite Series · #12033904

Olejnik1.80

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite49% won 16 of 33

Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9

Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17

Mugowski1.91

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog40% won 288 of 724

Down 0–1, comes back21% 90 of 430

Down 0–2, comes back7% 18 of 246

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOlejnik6wins

AwayMugowski4wins

Olejnik leads 6–4.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOlejnik100%4 of 4

AwayMugowski66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Olejnik4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10

S2Olejnik6Mugowski4n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10

S3Olejnik8Mugowski2n = 10Olejnik took 8 of 10

S4Olejnik3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricOlejnikMugowskiO − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.932.4+1.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOlejnikMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 327 vs 1452 / 312344.7%46.5%146 / 327 vs 1452 / 3123Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Mugowski

Olejnik 1.80/Mugowski 1.91

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Mugowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Mugowski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LJun 13 · 05:40M. Olejnik—571161A. Mugowski—11117113

WFeb 14 · 12:20M. Olejnik—1111123A. Mugowski—94100

LFeb 14 · 06:25M. Olejnik—6760A. Mugowski—1111113

WFeb 14 · 04:00M. Olejnik—12115113A. Mugowski—1061121

WNov 16 · 04:30M. Olejnik—1117113A. Mugowski—71540

LNov 14 · 19:10M. Olejnik—991161A. Mugowski—11118113

WSep 20 · 03:05M. Olejnik—1111113A. Mugowski—5850

WAug 6 · 08:10M. Olejnik—51111113A. Mugowski—118951

WAug 5 · 13:25M. Olejnik—31311123A. Mugowski—11117101

LAug 4 · 06:55M. Olejnik—1061171A. Mugowski—12118113

M. Olejnik10

LJun 14 · 14:00M. Olejnik1.737780K. Makowski2.001111113 WJun 14 · 11:30M. Olejnik2.001211113A. Szoltysek1.7310770 WJun 14 · 10:20M. Minda2.101113117132M. Olejnik1.67515711153 LJun 14 · 09:30M. Olejnik1.83811691W. Gronowski1.8311611113 WJun 14 · 08:10F. Jablonski2.10114581M. Olejnik1.6671111113 WJun 14 · 07:20K. Makowski1.9111780M. Olejnik1.801311113 LJun 14 · 05:15D. Poloszczanski2.4881311113M. Olejnik1.461111891 LJun 14 · 04:30A. Mugowski1.83111112113M. Olejnik1.866131091 WJun 14 · 03:00K. Marchlewski1.839970M. Olejnik1.861111113 WJun 13 · 14:40M. Olejnik2.01511124133K. Marchlewski1.691161011112

A. Mugowski10

WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120 LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113 LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113 LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100 WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842 LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113 LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100 LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111 LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113 WJun 14 · 04:30A. Mugowski1.83111112113M. Olejnik1.866131091

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