TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #11932705
Played May 23Finished
Milan Zika
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711911––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMilan Zika above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11
62 points played in total.
H2H Milan Zika 21–23 Patrik Sturma Milan Zika has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZika 2.00 / Sturma 1.73
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Sturma)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #11932705
Zika2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 82 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back31% 26 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Sturma1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 91 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it55% 57 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZika4wins
AwaySturma6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZika50%2 of 4
AwaySturma66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zika4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Zika5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Zika4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S4Zika3Sturma3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZikaSturmaZ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.536.1−3.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZikaSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 312 vs 264 / 53646.8%49.3%146 / 312 vs 264 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaZika 2.00/Sturma 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 20 · 19:10M. Zika—0P. Sturma—3
LMay 18 · 19:10M. Zika—0P. Sturma—3
LApr 27 · 20:10M. Zika—2P. Sturma—3
LApr 25 · 12:10M. Zika—0P. Sturma—3
LApr 15 · 18:10M. Zika—1P. Sturma—3
WApr 15 · 15:10M. Zika—3P. Sturma—1
WApr 13 · 18:10M. Zika—3P. Sturma—1
LApr 12 · 16:45M. Zika—1P. Sturma—3
WApr 12 · 16:15M. Zika—3P. Sturma—0
WMar 30 · 13:40M. Zika—3P. Sturma—1
M. Zika10
LMay 23 · 20:45L. Jr1.8314116113M. Zika1.831291171LMay 23 · 20:10M. Zika2.20125591J. Lysek1.61101111113LMay 23 · 18:40R. Jancak1.53101111113M. Zika2.38129871LMay 23 · 18:10L. Jr1.8311711113M. Zika1.83811691LMay 23 · 16:45J. Sindler1.675111011113M. Zika2.0511812152LMay 23 · 16:10J. Sindler1.6111118113M. Zika2.20671171LMay 23 · 13:40L. Jr1.83711411113M. Zika1.8311811252LMay 20 · 20:40L. Jr1.801241611113M. Zika1.91141114992LMay 20 · 20:10J. Lysek1.6761111113M. Zika2.10116771LMay 20 · 19:10M. Zika1.837740P. Sturma1.831111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WMay 20 · 19:10M. Zika1.837740P. Sturma1.831111113
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