TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Marcelo Aguirre vs Matthias Danzer 3-2 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played May 8Finished
Marcelo Aguirre
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115611118511119
Matthias Danzer
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarcelo Aguirre above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9
88 points played in total.
H2H Marcelo Aguirre 1–0 Matthias Danzer Matthias Danzer has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Aguirre)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danzer form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAguirre 1.30 / Danzer 3.40
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Aguirre)-7.5pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #11852701
Aguirre1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Danzer3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeAguirre1wins
AwayDanzer0wins
Aguirre leads 1–0.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricAguirreDanzerA − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.044.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAguirreDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 7 vs 178 / 25085.7%71.2%6 / 7 vs 178 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AguirreAguirre 1.30/Danzer 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Aguirre · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aguirre won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
W—M. Aguirre—3M. Danzer—2
M. Aguirre10
LJul 12 · 14:45M. Aguirre1.57111111472A. Kouraichi2.25136811113WJul 11 · 22:25M. Aguirre1.47611115113I. Diaw2.3811891172WJul 11 · 16:55N. Tauler3.75911611122M. Aguirre1.25118117143WJul 10 · 15:55M. Aguirre1.071111611113F. Arado7.5013511552WMay 12 · 11:00M. Aguirre1.2211118113E. Mendes4.00851181WMay 12 · 09:15M. Aguirre1.521111113G. Alcayde2.357550WMay 12 · 08:30Y. Batix4.505580M. Aguirre1.171111113WMay 11 · 17:00N. Kizakisz10.00591141M. Aguirre1.0311119113WMay 11 · 15:30M. Aguirre1.1711811153G. Alcayde4.507117131WMay 11 · 13:00M. Aguirre—1111113E. Huzsvar—9830
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140
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