TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11737870
Played Apr 13Finished
Francesco Maragioglio
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311311311––––
Pylyp Koloidenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingFrancesco Maragioglio above · Pylyp Koloidenko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 0-1
Point 29 set 3, 0-1
29 points drawn · the score is 13 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Francesco Maragioglio 0–3 Pylyp Koloidenko Francesco Maragioglio has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koloidenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koloidenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaragioglio 2.10 / Koloidenko 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Koloidenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #11737870
The market does not separate these two
2.10 against 1.67 — a coin flip with a margin on top.
Below 3pp of separation the engine pins the read to 50 ± 4 and then drops the pick. So no percentage is published here — the price is the datum.
Maragioglio2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Koloidenko1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMaragioglio0wins
AwayKoloidenko3wins
Koloidenko leads 3–0.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maragioglio1Koloidenko2n = 3Koloidenko took 2 of 3
S2Maragioglio1Koloidenko2n = 3Koloidenko took 2 of 3
S3Maragioglio2Koloidenko1n = 3Maragioglio took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMaragioglioKoloidenkoM − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.345.0−9.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaragioglioKoloidenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 56 vs 69 / 22633.9%30.5%19 / 56 vs 69 / 226Avg sets wonper match1.41.4per matchAvg pointsper match30.632.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoloidenkoMaragioglio 2.10/Koloidenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Koloidenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koloidenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
L—F. Maragioglio—3P. Koloidenko—0
L—F. Maragioglio—2P. Koloidenko—3
L—F. Maragioglio—3P. Koloidenko—2
F. Maragioglio10
LApr 14 · 08:00F. Maragioglio9.0011211792K. Fadeev1.04611911113LApr 13 · 17:00F. Maragioglio4.33114831M. Neumaier1.2031111113LApr 13 · 15:00F. Maragioglio7.507530J. Loffler1.071111113LApr 13 · 14:00F. Maragioglio9.003670M. Hollo1.041111113LApr 13 · 10:30F. Maragioglio9.00791171G. Alcayde1.0411119113LApr 13 · 06:30F. Maragioglio4.00126561E. Huzsvar1.22101111113LDec 9 · 11:30F. Maragioglio—42180M. Stefanidis—1111203LDec 9 · 10:15D. Cheaib1.041111113F. Maragioglio9.006950WDec 9 · 07:30K. Walter1.409880F. Maragioglio2.751111113LDec 8 · 17:30D. Cheaib1.031111113F. Maragioglio10.006630
P. Koloidenko10
LAug 25 · 08:00P. Koloidenko5.106560E. Huzsvar1.121111113WAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950WAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113LAug 24 · 10:30P. Koloidenko4.50611771M. Henninger1.1711811113LAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113WApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.081211113A. Moreno7.0010730LApr 17 · 06:30P. Koloidenko2.1011111131Y. Rebetez1.6713136113LApr 16 · 16:00P. Koloidenko7.5091351162D. Rinderer1.071111114113
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