TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Chodorski vs Maciej Nowalinski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Mar 31Finished
Piotr Chodorski
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214711117115511
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingPiotr Chodorski above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 94 set 5, 5-11
94 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Chodorski 8–8 Maciej Nowalinski Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chodorski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chodorski form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChodorski 1.57 / Nowalinski 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chodorski)-4.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #11671562
The market does not separate these two
1.57 against 2.25 — a coin flip with a margin on top.
Below 3pp of separation the engine pins the read to 50 ± 4 and then drops the pick. So no percentage is published here — the price is the datum.
Chodorski1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nowalinski2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChodorski5wins
AwayNowalinski5wins
Level at 5–5.
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chodorski5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Chodorski4Nowalinski6n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S3Chodorski5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Chodorski4Nowalinski1n = 5Chodorski took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChodorskiNowalinskiC − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.234.20.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChodorskiNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 860 vs 1160 / 227348.4%51%416 / 860 vs 1160 / 2273Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChodorskiChodorski 1.57/Nowalinski 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chodorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
L—P. Chodorski—2M. Nowalinski—3
W—P. Chodorski—1M. Nowalinski—3
W—P. Chodorski—3M. Nowalinski—0
W—P. Chodorski—3M. Nowalinski—1
L—P. Chodorski—1M. Nowalinski—3
L—P. Chodorski—3M. Nowalinski—0
W—P. Chodorski—1M. Nowalinski—3
L—P. Chodorski—3M. Nowalinski—0
L—P. Chodorski—0M. Nowalinski—3
W—P. Chodorski—3M. Nowalinski—0
P. Chodorski10
LSep 2 · 16:40P. Chodorski1.4484111152R. Formela2.6311116363WAug 30 · 17:30P. Chodorski—71111113F. Wetzel—114371WAug 29 · 17:00A. Stalzer—5990P. Chodorski—1111113WAug 28 · 17:39J. Cavaille1.6131181142P. Chodorski2.2011511363LApr 12 · 12:33P. Chodorski2.2510118131M. Zalewski1.5712211153LApr 1 · 11:35P. Chodorski1.7300J. Braun2.0050LApr 1 · 10:45A. Wiecek1.611111113P. Chodorski2.207760LApr 1 · 09:35K. Petas1.911111113P. Chodorski1.808680WApr 1 · 08:25P. Chodorski1.8313119163A. Wiecek1.8311711141LApr 1 · 07:15M. Olejnik1.361111113P. Chodorski3.004830
M. Nowalinski10
WSep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.757880M. Nowalinski1.401111113LSep 11 · 20:30T. Filbrandt2.631411169113M. Nowalinski1.44168141192WSep 11 · 18:30K. Strowski1.8311591132M. Nowalinski1.83611119113WSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8371161192M. Nowalinski1.83118114113WSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173LSep 11 · 13:25K. Wisniewski2.551181111113M. Nowalinski1.4213115592WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113
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