TT Lossbeater/Challenger Ochsenhausen
Challenger OchsenhausenMatch #13066005
Played Sep 2Finished
Piotr Chodorski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81141111611356
Rafal Formela
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–6Last 7Lost last 1
How it is goingPiotr Chodorski above · Rafal Formela below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 5-6
Point 68 set 5, 5-6
68 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Piotr Chodorski 1–0 Rafal Formela Rafal Formela has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Chodorski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Formela form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChodorski 1.44 / Formela 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Chodorski)-0.0pp
Challenger Ochsenhausen · #13066005
Chodorski1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Formela2.63
14%won 1 of 7 · last 10
oldest → newest
14%takes the first set · 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChodorski1wins
AwayFormela0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderChodorski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChodorskiFormelaC − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.041.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChodorskiFormelaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 10 vs 1 / 640%16.7%4 / 10 vs 1 / 6Avg sets wonper match1.31.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChodorskiChodorski 1.44/Formela 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Chodorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Formela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJan 8 · 17:23P. Chodorski—11711763R. Formela—81171142
P. Chodorski10
WAug 30 · 17:30P. Chodorski—71111113F. Wetzel—114371WAug 29 · 17:00A. Stalzer—5990P. Chodorski—1111113WAug 28 · 17:39J. Cavaille1.6131181142P. Chodorski2.2011511363LApr 12 · 12:33P. Chodorski2.2510118131M. Zalewski1.5712211153LApr 1 · 11:35P. Chodorski1.7300J. Braun2.0050LApr 1 · 10:45A. Wiecek1.611111113P. Chodorski2.207760LApr 1 · 09:35K. Petas1.911111113P. Chodorski1.808680WApr 1 · 08:25P. Chodorski1.8313119163A. Wiecek1.8311711141LApr 1 · 07:15M. Olejnik1.361111113P. Chodorski3.004830LApr 1 · 05:50J. Braun2.001311113P. Chodorski1.7311640
R. Formela7
LMay 31 · 11:10R. Formela4.0071250P. Gionis1.221114113WJan 8 · 18:20P. Michalski4.0071161312R. Formela1.22115111163LJan 8 · 17:23P. Chodorski1.1711711763R. Formela4.5081171142LNov 12 · 12:05R. Formela—891181P. Lewandowski—11116113LNov 12 · 11:55R. Formela1.83891181P. Lewandowski1.8311116113LNov 6 · 19:00E. Ly2.201111113R. Formela1.617040LJan 26 · 17:13B. Olah1.221411133R. Formela4.00126110
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