TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Potmesil vs Jiri Koch 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Pavel Potmesil
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1135111113511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:29 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timePavel Potmesil to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Potmesil above · Jiri Koch below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Pavel Potmesil at 66.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Potmesil 2–1 Jiri Koch Jiri Koch has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2966.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Potmesil
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potmesil 1027 vs Koch 1000
Potmesil
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potmesil 40% vs Koch 20%
Potmesil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potmesil 40% vs Koch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potmesil -1 · Koch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Potmesil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koch form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotmesil 1.40 / Koch 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Potmesil)-5.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268277
Potmesil1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 12 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Koch2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePotmesil2wins
AwayKoch1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPotmesil leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potmesil2Koch1n = 3Potmesil took 2 of 3
S2Potmesil2Koch1n = 3Potmesil took 2 of 3
S3Potmesil1Koch2n = 3Koch took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPotmesilKochP − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.034.7+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotmesilKochBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 66 vs 34 / 9145.5%37.4%30 / 66 vs 34 / 91Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PotmesilPotmesil 1.40/Koch 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Potmesil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil321151151J. Koch3831113113
WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil331111113J. Koch161690
WJul 8 · 06:30P. Potmesil49914411113J. Koch50111211972
P. Potmesil10
WOct 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.61611471P. Potmesil2.2011711113LOct 6 · 13:30J. Strnad1.7311118113P. Potmesil2.00881151WOct 6 · 12:00C. Havrda1.611111613102P. Potmesil2.20871115123WOct 6 · 11:00V. Kubat1.448990P. Potmesil2.631111113LOct 6 · 10:30P. Potmesil2.1021271262J. Strnad1.6711101110113LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181
J. Koch10
WOct 10 · 07:30J. Koch2.38711145113P. Petr1.53117121192WSep 25 · 09:03J. Pantak1.2810250J. Koch3.501211113LSep 25 · 08:00J. Koch3.50111198112J. Pantak1.28291111133LSep 25 · 07:30V. Kubat1.4091111113J. Koch2.75118671LSep 25 · 06:00J. Koch2.2081111592P. Petr1.61118911113LSep 17 · 13:28J. Strnad1.289101111113J. Koch3.5011124862WSep 17 · 12:00J. Koch3.2511118113V. Kubat1.33871181WSep 17 · 11:30J. Stary2.756117101J. Koch1.4011911123LSep 17 · 10:00J. Koch3.50115871J. Strnad1.2871111113LAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690
Upcoming Matches
P. Potmesil
Nothing scheduled
J. Koch
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