TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13141579
Played Sep 17Finished
Jiri Koch
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511811711––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Koch above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 74.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Koch 0–8 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Jiri Koch has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Strnad
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koch 927 vs Strnad 1024
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koch 40% vs Strnad 20%
Koch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koch 20% vs Strnad 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koch +1 · Strnad -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoch 3.50 / Strnad 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Strnad)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13141579
Koch3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog23% won 9 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Strnad1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 18 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKoch0wins
AwayStrnad8wins
2 of 8 to a deciderStrnad leads 8–0, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKochn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrnad100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koch1Strnad7n = 8Strnad took 7 of 8
S2Koch1Strnad7n = 8Strnad took 7 of 8
S3Koch2Strnad6n = 8Strnad took 6 of 8
S4Koch2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricKochStrnadK − SBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match27.438.2−10.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKochStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 100 vs 148 / 36439%40.7%39 / 100 vs 148 / 364Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadKoch 3.50/Strnad 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 18 · 07:30J. Koch165380J. Strnad331111113
LJun 29 · 09:30J. Koch3986111132J. Strnad46111158113
LJun 29 · 08:00J. Koch216780J. Strnad331111113
LNov 2 · 13:30J. Koch228590J. Strnad331111113
LAug 3 · 09:00J. Koch30661171J. Strnad3711114113
LAug 3 · 08:30J. Koch26115461J. Strnad3961111113
LJul 2 · 02:00J. Koch163760J. Strnad331111113
LFeb 2 · 09:00J. Koch49101181192J. Strnad52129119113
J. Koch10
WSep 17 · 12:00J. Koch3.2511118113V. Kubat1.33871181WSep 17 · 11:30J. Stary2.756117101J. Koch1.4011911123WSep 16 · 09:00J. Stary2.257480J. Koch1.571111113LSep 16 · 08:30V. Kubat1.361311113J. Koch3.0011520LSep 16 · 07:30J. Koch2.50118791P. Petr1.5071111113WSep 16 · 06:30J. Stary2.25111110972J. Koch1.57561211113LAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690LAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113LAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860
J. Strnad10
LSep 17 · 11:00J. Strnad1.57791191V. Kubat2.2511116113LSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:30J. Strnad3.0011159121J. Cernik1.3661711143WSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:00L. Novotny1.57711116113J. Strnad2.2511141132LSep 11 · 17:00J. Hyrsl1.5011115113J. Strnad2.45871181WSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad2.3811912113R. Buric1.537111071LSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad2.504690J. Hyrsl1.501111113LSep 11 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.6181111123J. Strnad2.201198101WSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352
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