TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13141234
Played Sep 17Finished
Jiri Stary
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111197111012––
Jiri Koch
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Koch to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Stary above · Jiri Koch below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jiri Koch at 67.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Stary 1–6 Jiri Koch Jiri Stary has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Koch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Koch
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stary 945 vs Koch 919
Stary
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stary 20% vs Koch 40%
Koch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stary 20% vs Koch 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stary -3 · Koch -1
Stary
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Koch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koch form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStary 2.75 / Koch 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Koch)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13141234
Stary2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Koch1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStary1wins
AwayKoch6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKoch leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaryn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKoch83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stary1Koch6n = 7Koch took 6 of 7
S2Stary4Koch3n = 7Stary took 4 of 7
S3Stary3Koch4n = 7Koch took 4 of 7
S4Stary1Koch4n = 5Koch took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricStaryKochS − KBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match34.339.7−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaryKochBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 133 vs 39 / 10137.6%38.6%50 / 133 vs 39 / 101Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.534.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KochStary 2.75/Koch 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Koch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 16 · 09:00J. Stary197480J. Koch331111113
LSep 16 · 06:30J. Stary48111110972J. Koch45561211113
LJun 30 · 11:00J. Stary397121191J. Koch4311147113
WJun 24 · 13:00J. Stary3851111113J. Koch37118991
LJun 24 · 10:30J. Stary229940J. Koch331111113
LJun 18 · 11:30J. Stary4281111662J. Koch46116711113
LJun 9 · 12:30J. Stary32411981J. Koch4111811113
J. Stary10
LSep 17 · 12:30J. Strnad1.401111113J. Stary2.756580LSep 17 · 10:30V. Kubat1.6111411113J. Stary2.20611591LSep 16 · 09:00J. Stary2.257480J. Koch1.571111113LSep 16 · 08:00P. Petr1.3391111113J. Stary3.25118671WSep 16 · 07:00V. Kubat1.615914131J. Stary2.20111112153LSep 16 · 06:30J. Stary2.25111110972J. Koch1.57561211113WSep 9 · 12:59P. Petr1.2261181182J. Stary4.00118115113LSep 9 · 12:30P. Serak1.5711114153J. Stary2.258511131LSep 9 · 11:30J. Stary1.67118391C. Havrda2.1091111113LSep 9 · 10:30P. Petr1.3351111113J. Stary3.25114381
J. Koch10
WSep 17 · 12:00J. Koch3.2511118113V. Kubat1.33871181LSep 17 · 10:00J. Koch3.50115871J. Strnad1.2871111113WSep 16 · 09:00J. Stary2.257480J. Koch1.571111113LSep 16 · 08:30V. Kubat1.361311113J. Koch3.0011520LSep 16 · 07:30J. Koch2.50118791P. Petr1.5071111113WSep 16 · 06:30J. Stary2.25111110972J. Koch1.57561211113LAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690LAug 22 · 07:30J. Koch1.44581191A. Tkachenko2.6311119113LAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860
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