TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Valerii Hel 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711311––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched: 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 50 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Valerii Hel at 63.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 5–9 Valerii Hel Oleksandr Maslovskyi has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5363.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 7.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Hel
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1208 vs Hel 1203
Maslovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 40% vs Hel 20%
Maslovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 60% vs Hel 20%
Maslovskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi -1 · Hel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Hel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 2.75 / Hel 1.40
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Hel)-7.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255954
Maslovskyi2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 74 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 94
Hel1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite53% won 49 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it70% 37 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi4wins
AwayHel6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyi50%2 of 4
AwayHel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi4Hel6n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S2Maslovskyi1Hel9n = 10Hel took 9 of 10
S3Maslovskyi2Hel8n = 10Hel took 8 of 10
S4Maslovskyi4Hel2n = 6Maslovskyi took 4 of 6
S5Maslovskyi3Hel0n = 3Maslovskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiHelM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.740.6−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiHelBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 875 vs 135 / 25450.3%53.2%440 / 875 vs 135 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HelMaslovskyi 2.75/Hel 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi49119611123V. Hel49811119102
WSep 21 · 09:35O. Maslovskyi50139611113V. Hel49111111972
WAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4581115113V. Hel391171381
LJun 14 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi175660V. Hel331111113
LApr 17 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi239950V. Hel331111113
LApr 16 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2274110V. Hel351111133
LApr 3 · 04:55O. Maslovskyi2797110V. Hel351111133
LApr 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi28122771V. Hel43101111113
WMar 12 · 10:25O. Maslovskyi48691111113V. Hel4511115992
LMar 11 · 17:25O. Maslovskyi381171281V. Hel4591114113
O. Maslovskyi10
LOct 7 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi3.2512951142M. Dunas1.331011118113LOct 5 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.53661171V. Vasyliev2.3811113113WOct 5 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.5751140O. Maslovskyi2.251113113LOct 5 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi3.50121060O. Maksymkiv1.281412113WOct 5 · 06:55H. Oliynyk1.733980O. Maslovskyi2.001111113LOct 5 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.7311116952O. Melnik2.00381111113WOct 4 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk1.5311116462O. Maslovskyi2.38761111113WOct 4 · 16:55O. Maslovskyi1.801111113O. Melnik1.919540WOct 4 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi1.57118711113V. Vasyliev2.2561111792LOct 4 · 14:25O. Maslovskyi2.7581050M. Dunas1.401112113
V. Hel10
LOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik2.0016118113V. Hel1.731451131WOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113LOct 2 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.801311123V. Hel1.91118100LOct 2 · 13:55M. Dunas2.20511114113V. Hel1.6111881192LOct 2 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi3.00119611123V. Hel1.36811119102LSep 30 · 10:25D. Ponomarenko1.3311814113V. Hel3.258111271LSep 30 · 09:25V. Hel1.734121091V. Kheresko2.00111012113WSep 30 · 08:25V. Hel2.1071111113S. Kryvoshyi1.67116881LSep 30 · 06:55V. Hel2.5091131192D. Kasian1.50116119113LSep 30 · 04:55V. Hel2.638060D. Kozoriz1.441111113
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