TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Alina Kurtenko vs Ulana Dronova 0-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811711––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:47 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAlina Kurtenko above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Ulana Dronova at 56.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Alina Kurtenko 3–6 Ulana Dronova Alina Kurtenko has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4756.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dronova
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Dronova
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1617 vs Dronova 1676
Dronova
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 100% vs Dronova 80%
Kurtenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 50% vs Dronova 80%
Dronova
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko +5 · Dronova +2
Kurtenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Dronova) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 2.10 / Dronova 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Dronova)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13255696
Kurtenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 13 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Dronova1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 20 days ago (Sep 17) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 22 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKurtenko3wins
AwayDronova6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderDronova leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayDronova83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko3Dronova6n = 9Dronova took 6 of 9
S2Kurtenko5Dronova4n = 9Kurtenko took 5 of 9
S3Kurtenko4Dronova5n = 9Dronova took 5 of 9
S4Kurtenko2Dronova2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricKurtenkoDronovaK − DBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match32.235.6−3.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 216 vs 51 / 10351.9%49.5%112 / 216 vs 51 / 103Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaKurtenko 2.10/Dronova 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 7 · 07:00A. Kurtenko227870U. Dronova331111113
LSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko361161091U. Dronova4281112113
WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko3851111113U. Dronova28117641
LAug 13 · 08:30A. Kurtenko2331190U. Dronova351113113
LAug 12 · 11:30A. Kurtenko3731111932U. Dronova45116611113
LJul 16 · 11:00A. Kurtenko44411811102U. Dronova49119116123
WApr 7 · 09:30A. Kurtenko331111113U. Dronova248880
LFeb 25 · 14:40A. Kurtenko197930U. Dronova331111113
WFeb 11 · 08:35A. Kurtenko381411133U. Dronova31128110
A. Kurtenko10
WOct 7 · 05:00A. Kurtenko1.801311113A. Rzhevska1.9111680WSep 28 · 09:58O. Kolbasenko5.00991271A. Kurtenko1.14111110113WSep 28 · 08:05A. Kurtenko1.141111123O. Kolbasenko5.0097100WSep 28 · 06:35A. Kurtenko1.2871111113Y. Mykhailyk3.50114861WSep 28 · 05:05A. Kurtenko1.57117118113P. Pashchenko2.2541161172LSep 16 · 10:30R. Budnyk1.53119811113A. Kurtenko2.3861111922LSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko1.731161091U. Dronova2.0081112113LSep 16 · 08:30A. Kurtenko3.751161021A. Ovriakh1.2561112113LSep 16 · 07:00A. Kurtenko4.508121151I. Yevtodii1.17111013113LSep 16 · 05:00A. Kurtenko3.257890N. Plokhotniuk1.331111113
U. Dronova10
WSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova2.50117119113N. Plokhotniuk1.5071131172WSep 17 · 09:00I. Yevtodii1.221110581U. Dronova4.0091211113LSep 17 · 08:00U. Dronova3.7511119472A. Ovriakh1.25871111113WSep 17 · 05:30U. Dronova1.83111297113R. Budnyk1.83910111162WSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova2.63111185163N. Plokhotniuk1.44991111142WSep 16 · 09:30A. Kurtenko1.731161091U. Dronova2.0081112113WSep 16 · 07:30R. Budnyk1.735840U. Dronova2.001111113LSep 16 · 06:30U. Dronova3.001061181A. Ovriakh1.3612114113WSep 16 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2011841182U. Dronova4.33711119113WSep 14 · 11:30U. Dronova1.441111113S. Yureneva2.639650
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