TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Potmesil vs Jaroslav Strnad 1961 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Pavel Potmesil
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
21112107111210611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Potmesil above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 55.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Potmesil 2–2 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1055.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potmesil 1029 vs Strnad 1029
Potmesil
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potmesil 40% vs Strnad 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potmesil 20% vs Strnad 40%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potmesil -1 · Strnad -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Strnad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotmesil 2.10 / Strnad 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Strnad)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248045
Potmesil2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 45 days ago (Aug 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 9 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Strnad1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 23 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePotmesil2wins
AwayStrnad2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potmesil2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S2Potmesil2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S3Potmesil1Strnad3n = 4Strnad took 3 of 4
S4Potmesil2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
S5Potmesil2Strnad1n = 3Potmesil took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPotmesilStrnadP − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.845.5−6.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotmesilStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 62 vs 136 / 33045.2%41.2%28 / 62 vs 136 / 330Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadPotmesil 2.10/Strnad 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 6 · 10:30P. Potmesil3921271262J. Strnad5311101110113
LAug 10 · 08:00P. Potmesil27611191J. Strnad4211911113
WMay 21 · 09:30P. Potmesil45117115113J. Strnad4161181152
WMay 21 · 07:30P. Potmesil44116412113J. Strnad46911111052
P. Potmesil10
WOct 6 · 12:00C. Havrda1.611111613102P. Potmesil2.20871115123WOct 6 · 11:00V. Kubat1.448990P. Potmesil2.631111113LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181LAug 10 · 08:00J. Strnad2.0011911113P. Potmesil1.73611191LAug 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.6711711113P. Potmesil2.10611741LAug 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil2.2058110A. Hejduk1.611111133
J. Strnad10
WOct 6 · 11:30J. Strnad2.381111113C. Havrda1.535980LOct 4 · 08:59J. Hyrsl1.221111113J. Strnad4.006880WOct 4 · 08:30J. Strnad2.001111113D. Cupec1.735950LOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad2.755750M. Vrabec1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.2811411113J. Strnad3.50711771WOct 3 · 09:02J. Strnad1.441111113P. Serak2.637890LOct 3 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.101111133J. Strnad1.6767110WOct 3 · 07:00L. Madle1.36116291J. Strnad3.0041111113WOct 3 · 06:30J. Strnad1.44111112113P. Serak2.63871441WAug 10 · 08:00J. Strnad2.0011911113P. Potmesil1.73611191
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