TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Karelov vs Ruslan Serhyenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:27 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 54.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 1–0 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2754.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Serhyenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1164 vs Serhyenko 1228
Serhyenko
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 60% vs Serhyenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 50% vs Serhyenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov +1 · Serhyenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Serhyenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.00 / Serhyenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Serhyenko)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245461
Karelov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 26 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Serhyenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKarelov1wins
AwaySerhyenko0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKarelov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKarelovSerhyenkoK − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match43.048.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 117 vs 253 / 57236.8%44.2%43 / 117 vs 253 / 572Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SerhyenkoKarelov 2.00/Serhyenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Serhyenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 22 · 19:05M. Karelov43361211113R. Serhyenko48111110882
M. Karelov10
WOct 5 · 14:05M. Karelov1.9151111113H. Buianover1.80118451WSep 22 · 19:05M. Karelov2.38361211113R. Serhyenko1.53111110882LSep 22 · 17:05A. Sydorenko1.2211411113M. Karelov4.00711951WSep 22 · 16:05M. Karelov2.101111113H. Buianover1.675380LSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:35M. Karelov2.0011146123V. Reva1.7391211101WSep 16 · 19:35V. Reva1.6710411111M. Karelov2.1012116133LSep 16 · 18:05M. Karelov3.406960V. Leonov1.301111113WSep 16 · 16:05H. Buianover1.40111190M. Karelov2.751313113LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120
R. Serhyenko10
WOct 5 · 14:35A. Azarov2.00961141R. Serhyenko1.7311119113LOct 1 · 19:05V. Reva1.8311811113R. Serhyenko1.83911951WOct 1 · 18:05A. Azarov1.8371141152R. Serhyenko1.83116117113WOct 1 · 16:35V. Leonov2.252101181R. Serhyenko1.5711126113LOct 1 · 14:35H. Buianover4.501211113R. Serhyenko1.1710750WOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 19:05M. Karelov2.38361211113R. Serhyenko1.53111110882WSep 22 · 18:05H. Buianover4.007690R. Serhyenko1.221111113WSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113LSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.