TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Azarov vs Ruslan Serhyenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611119411––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Azarov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 54.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Artem Azarov 3–3 Ruslan Serhyenko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1754.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Serhyenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Azarov 1186 vs Serhyenko 1251
Serhyenko
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Azarov 40% vs Serhyenko 60%
Serhyenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Azarov 40% vs Serhyenko 60%
Serhyenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Azarov -1 · Serhyenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Serhyenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAzarov 2.00 / Serhyenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Serhyenko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245669
Azarov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 13 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Serhyenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeAzarov3wins
AwaySerhyenko3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAzarovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySerhyenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Azarov2Serhyenko4n = 6Serhyenko took 4 of 6
S2Azarov3Serhyenko3n = 6split evenly
S3Azarov3Serhyenko3n = 6split evenly
S4Azarov3Serhyenko1n = 4Azarov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricAzarovSerhyenkoA − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.337.7−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAzarovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 60 vs 251 / 56533.3%44.4%20 / 60 vs 251 / 565Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SerhyenkoAzarov 2.00/Serhyenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Serhyenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 5 · 14:35A. Azarov30961141R. Serhyenko4211119113
LOct 1 · 18:05A. Azarov3871141152R. Serhyenko46116117113
LSep 18 · 12:35A. Azarov239680R. Serhyenko331111113
WSep 11 · 19:05A. Azarov44101112113R. Serhyenko291241031
WSep 2 · 14:55A. Azarov341211113R. Serhyenko2610790
WAug 27 · 16:25A. Azarov49124913113R. Serhyenko501011111172
A. Azarov10
WOct 5 · 15:35M. Karelov2.251011111012A. Azarov1.57128412113LOct 5 · 13:35V. Reva1.8311118143A. Azarov1.837611121WOct 1 · 19:35H. Buianover2.25101111992A. Azarov1.57128411113LOct 1 · 18:05A. Azarov1.8371141152R. Serhyenko1.83116117113LOct 1 · 16:05V. Reva2.1014911113A. Azarov1.671211681WOct 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.83118881A. Azarov1.8381111113WOct 1 · 13:05V. Leonov1.801544101A. Azarov1.91131111123LSep 25 · 19:05V. Chumak1.28111011123A. Azarov3.509126101LSep 25 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.2581111103A. Azarov3.75118751LSep 25 · 16:35V. Sydorenko1.8081111113A. Azarov1.91115761
R. Serhyenko10
WOct 5 · 12:35M. Karelov2.0081070R. Serhyenko1.731112113LOct 1 · 19:05V. Reva1.8311811113R. Serhyenko1.83911951WOct 1 · 18:05A. Azarov1.8371141152R. Serhyenko1.83116117113WOct 1 · 16:35V. Leonov2.252101181R. Serhyenko1.5711126113LOct 1 · 14:35H. Buianover4.501211113R. Serhyenko1.1710750WOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 19:05M. Karelov2.38361211113R. Serhyenko1.53111110882WSep 22 · 18:05H. Buianover4.007690R. Serhyenko1.221111113WSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113LSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261
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