TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Azarov vs Ruslan Serhyenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711116411117511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Azarov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 84 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Artem Azarov 3–1 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Serhyenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Azarov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Azarov 1205 vs Serhyenko 1228
Serhyenko
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Azarov 40% vs Serhyenko 60%
Serhyenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Azarov 40% vs Serhyenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Azarov -1 · Serhyenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Serhyenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Azarov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAzarov 1.833 / Serhyenko 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Serhyenko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13223667
Azarov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Serhyenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAzarov3wins
AwaySerhyenko1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderAzarov leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Azarov2Serhyenko2n = 4split evenly
S2Azarov2Serhyenko2n = 4split evenly
S3Azarov2Serhyenko2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricAzarovSerhyenkoA − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.534.5+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAzarovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 56 vs 252 / 57033.9%44.2%19 / 56 vs 252 / 570Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SerhyenkoAzarov 1.83/Serhyenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Serhyenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 18 · 12:35A. Azarov239680R. Serhyenko331111113
WSep 11 · 19:05A. Azarov44101112113R. Serhyenko291241031
WSep 2 · 14:55A. Azarov341211113R. Serhyenko2610790
WAug 27 · 16:25A. Azarov49124913113R. Serhyenko501011111172
A. Azarov10
LOct 1 · 16:05V. Reva2.1014911113A. Azarov1.671211681WOct 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.83118881A. Azarov1.8381111113WOct 1 · 13:05V. Leonov1.801544101A. Azarov1.91131111123LSep 25 · 19:05V. Chumak1.28111011123A. Azarov3.509126101LSep 25 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.2581111103A. Azarov3.75118751LSep 25 · 16:35V. Sydorenko1.8081111113A. Azarov1.91115761WSep 25 · 14:35V. Husiev1.571151271A. Azarov2.25131110113LSep 25 · 12:35D. Boltenkov1.301111123A. Azarov3.4068100WSep 24 · 18:35A. Azarov1.9191611113V. Leonov1.801114591LSep 24 · 17:05A. Azarov3.00167111172F. Chashchin1.36181123113
R. Serhyenko10
LOct 1 · 19:05V. Reva1.8311811113R. Serhyenko1.83911951WOct 1 · 16:35V. Leonov2.252101181R. Serhyenko1.5711126113LOct 1 · 14:35H. Buianover4.501211113R. Serhyenko1.1710750WOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 19:05M. Karelov2.38361211113R. Serhyenko1.53111110882WSep 22 · 18:05H. Buianover4.007690R. Serhyenko1.221111113WSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113LSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261WSep 22 · 12:35A. Sydorenko3.758820R. Serhyenko1.251111113LSep 18 · 18:35R. Serhyenko2.501197161Y. Bielokon1.5081111183
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