TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Karelov vs Ruslan Serhyenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3116111210118118
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 60.8%
91 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:29What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Serhyenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1150 vs Serhyenko 1214
Serhyenko
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 60% vs Serhyenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 40% vs Serhyenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -1 · Serhyenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Serhyenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.38 / Serhyenko 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Serhyenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13173124
Karelov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 23 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Serhyenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 32 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 116 vs 254 / 58236.2%43.6%42 / 116 vs 254 / 582Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerhyenkoKarelov 2.38/Serhyenko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Serhyenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karelov won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Karelov10
LSep 22 · 17:05A. Sydorenko1.2211411113M. Karelov4.00711951WSep 22 · 16:05M. Karelov2.101111113H. Buianover1.675380LSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:35M. Karelov2.0011146123V. Reva1.7391211101WSep 16 · 19:35V. Reva1.6710411111M. Karelov2.1012116133LSep 16 · 18:05M. Karelov3.406960V. Leonov1.301111113WSep 16 · 16:05H. Buianover1.40111190M. Karelov2.751313113LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120LSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113
R. Serhyenko10
WSep 22 · 18:05H. Buianover4.007690R. Serhyenko1.221111113WSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113LSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261WSep 22 · 12:35A. Sydorenko3.758820R. Serhyenko1.251111113LSep 18 · 18:35R. Serhyenko2.501197161Y. Bielokon1.5081111183LSep 18 · 17:05R. Serhyenko3.009860D. Boltenkov1.361111113LSep 18 · 15:35R. Serhyenko2.25115951V. Chumak1.5791111113WSep 18 · 14:05R. Serhyenko2.75111011133I. Yelfimov1.406128111WSep 18 · 12:35R. Serhyenko2.381111113A. Azarov1.539680LSep 11 · 19:05R. Serhyenko2.201241031A. Azarov1.61101112113
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