TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Derco vs Ivan Kolenciak 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811117116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:46 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Ivan Kolenciak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Michal Derco at 65.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 5–3 Ivan Kolenciak Ivan Kolenciak has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4665.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Derco
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Derco
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derco 1239 vs Kolenciak 1162
Derco
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 40% vs Kolenciak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 40% vs Kolenciak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco -1 · Kolenciak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Derco) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 1.444 / Kolenciak 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Derco)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242678
Derco1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 21 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Kolenciak2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 17 days ago (Sep 18) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 8 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDerco5wins
AwayKolenciak3wins
Derco leads 5–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerco100%4 of 4
AwayKolenciak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco4Kolenciak4n = 8split evenly
S2Derco3Kolenciak5n = 8Kolenciak took 5 of 8
S3Derco5Kolenciak3n = 8Derco took 5 of 8
S4Derco4Kolenciak1n = 5Derco took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricDercoKolenciakD − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match34.234.4−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoKolenciakBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 97 vs 85 / 18952.6%45%51 / 97 vs 85 / 189Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DercoDerco 1.44/Kolenciak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 5 · 10:00M. Derco4111811113I. Kolenciak29511761
WAug 2 · 07:00M. Derco341211113I. Kolenciak2510960
WJul 30 · 08:00M. Derco4413711133I. Kolenciak4211119111
WJul 17 · 13:04M. Derco4271112123I. Kolenciak3711610101
LJul 17 · 12:00M. Derco163490I. Kolenciak331111113
LJul 9 · 08:30M. Derco33981151I. Kolenciak3711114113
LMay 22 · 11:30M. Derco224990I. Kolenciak331111113
WMay 7 · 10:30M. Derco4218112113I. Kolenciak391651171
M. Derco10
WOct 5 · 11:30M. Stolba2.109111391M. Derco1.6711915113LOct 2 · 21:30V. Rybar1.75124114113M. Derco1.95101191182WOct 2 · 20:30T. Navrat1.9185100M. Derco1.801111123WOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361LSep 26 · 17:06M. Blaha1.631211113M. Derco2.1310560LSep 26 · 16:00R. Adamczyk1.671113113M. Derco2.1051140LSep 26 · 15:00M. Blaha1.531211116113M. Derco2.3814981182LSep 26 · 14:30M. Derco1.25519170Z. Luksa3.751121193WSep 21 · 09:30M. Derco1.6111111110113J. Toth2.2097131242
I. Kolenciak10
LOct 5 · 11:00I. Kolenciak1.73129551I. Palmi2.00101111113LSep 18 · 13:00J. Toth1.67118118113I. Kolenciak2.1061171182LSep 18 · 12:30I. Palmi2.2511715113I. Kolenciak1.572111381WSep 18 · 11:30I. Kolenciak1.8011118113A. Kanak1.91881191LSep 18 · 10:30J. Toth2.001111113I. Kolenciak1.739930WSep 12 · 17:01M. Blaha1.2861161252I. Kolenciak3.301161110113LSep 12 · 16:30I. Kolenciak1.739760Z. Luksa2.001111113LSep 12 · 15:00I. Kolenciak3.40691161R. Adamczyk1.3011116113LSep 12 · 14:00M. Blaha1.361511113I. Kolenciak3.0013730LSep 9 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.6166111362J. Toth2.201111511113
Upcoming Matches
M. Derco
Nothing scheduled
I. Kolenciak
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