TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Navrat vs Michal Derco 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Tomas Navrat
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8115111012––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Navrat above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 57 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Michal Derco at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Navrat 1–1 Michal Derco Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derco
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Navrat 1220 vs Derco 1225
Derco
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navrat 20% vs Derco 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navrat 30% vs Derco 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navrat -4 · Derco +1
Navrat
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Derco) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavrat 1.909 / Derco 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derco)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228614
Navrat1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 6 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Derco1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 20 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNavrat1wins
AwayDerco1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNavratDercoN − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.046.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavratDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 66 vs 49 / 9436.4%52.1%24 / 66 vs 49 / 94Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DercoNavrat 1.91/Derco 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 20 · 21:14T. Navrat29118461M. Derco4181111113
WAug 20 · 19:00T. Navrat511311106113M. Derco51118121192
T. Navrat10
LOct 2 · 19:00T. Navrat1.9111913101Z. Luksa1.80131111123LOct 2 · 18:00V. Rybar1.361111113T. Navrat3.008750LSep 14 · 21:30R. Adamczyk1.57141159113T. Navrat2.25126111172LSep 14 · 20:00R. Adamczyk1.831311113T. Navrat1.8311720WSep 14 · 19:00A. Kanak1.6710990T. Navrat2.101211113WSep 14 · 18:30T. Navrat1.53713811113M. Blaha2.38111111882LAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:00V. Rybar1.3613811113T. Navrat3.001111661WAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113LAug 20 · 18:30T. Navrat1.36113581M. Blaha3.0091111113
M. Derco10
WOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361LSep 26 · 17:06M. Blaha1.631211113M. Derco2.1310560LSep 26 · 16:00R. Adamczyk1.671113113M. Derco2.1051140LSep 26 · 15:00M. Blaha1.531211116113M. Derco2.3814981182LSep 26 · 14:30M. Derco1.25519170Z. Luksa3.751121193WSep 21 · 09:30M. Derco1.6111111110113J. Toth2.2097131242WSep 21 · 08:00M. Derco1.7311312113A. Kanak2.004111051WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113
Upcoming Matches
T. Navrat
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M. Derco
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