TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Stolba vs Michal Derco 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111191315911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Stolba above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 88 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Michal Derco at 55.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Stolba 3–2 Michal Derco Michal Derco has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2655.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derco
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolba 1196 vs Derco 1239
Derco
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolba 60% vs Derco 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolba 60% vs Derco 40%
Stolba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolba +1 · Derco +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Derco) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolba form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolba 2.10 / Derco 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Derco)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244001
Stolba2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 14 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Derco1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 21 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStolba3wins
AwayDerco2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderStolba leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolban = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDerco50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolba1Derco4n = 5Derco took 4 of 5
S2Stolba3Derco2n = 5Stolba took 3 of 5
S3Stolba3Derco2n = 5Stolba took 3 of 5
S4Stolba2Derco1n = 3Stolba took 2 of 3
S5Stolba2Derco1n = 3Stolba took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricStolbaDercoS − DBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match41.237.8+3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolbaDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 113 vs 51 / 9749.6%52.6%56 / 113 vs 51 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DercoStolba 2.10/Derco 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 30 · 06:00M. Stolba4596111182M. Derco48111169113
WJul 9 · 09:00M. Stolba48611911113M. Derco3711411832
LJul 9 · 07:30M. Stolba2366110M. Derco351111133
WJun 2 · 17:30M. Stolba571011118173M. Derco50126611152
WJun 2 · 16:30M. Stolba331111113M. Derco199730
M. Stolba10
WOct 5 · 12:30I. Kolenciak1.532640M. Stolba2.381111113WOct 5 · 10:30I. Palmi2.505660M. Stolba1.501111113LSep 30 · 09:28Z. Luksa1.4413118113M. Stolba2.631181181WSep 30 · 08:30A. Kanak1.73113751M. Stolba2.0071111113LSep 30 · 07:30M. Stolba2.6381161192Z. Luksa1.44114118113WSep 30 · 06:30J. Toth1.7389100M. Stolba2.001111123WSep 22 · 20:58M. Stolba1.401111113S. Blabla2.755940WSep 22 · 20:30S. Blabla2.0010580M. Stolba1.731211113LSep 22 · 19:30M. Stolba3.25781141M. Blaha1.3311119113LSep 22 · 18:30Z. Luksa1.671111123M. Stolba2.1096100
M. Derco10
LOct 5 · 12:00M. Derco1.53118117122I. Palmi2.38811211143WOct 5 · 10:00M. Derco1.4411811113I. Kolenciak2.63511761LOct 2 · 21:30V. Rybar1.75124114113M. Derco1.95101191182WOct 2 · 20:30T. Navrat1.9185100M. Derco1.801111123WOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361LSep 26 · 17:06M. Blaha1.631211113M. Derco2.1310560LSep 26 · 16:00R. Adamczyk1.671113113M. Derco2.1051140LSep 26 · 15:00M. Blaha1.531211116113M. Derco2.3814981182LSep 26 · 14:30M. Derco1.25519170Z. Luksa3.751121193
Upcoming Matches
M. Stolba
M. Derco
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.