TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Rybar vs Michal Derco 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210411119411118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Rybar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Rybar above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Vaclav Rybar at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Rybar 1–4 Michal Derco Vaclav Rybar has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Derco beat Rybar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2054.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Rybar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Derco
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybar 1283 vs Derco 1238
Rybar
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybar 40% vs Derco 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybar 40% vs Derco 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybar +1 · Derco +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rybar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybar 1.75 / Derco 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rybar)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13235136
Rybar1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 15 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Derco1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 14 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back31% 5 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRybar1wins
AwayDerco4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderDerco leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybarn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDerco75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybar1Derco4n = 5Derco took 4 of 5
S2Rybar2Derco3n = 5Derco took 3 of 5
S3Rybar3Derco2n = 5Rybar took 3 of 5
S4Rybar2Derco3n = 5Derco took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRybarDercoR − DBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match36.640.8−4.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybarDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 47 vs 50 / 9553.2%52.6%25 / 47 vs 50 / 95Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RybarRybar 1.75/Derco 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rybar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rybar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 2 · 19:30V. Rybar328311101M. Derco3811114123
WSep 14 · 08:58V. Rybar4291111113M. Derco35118881
LSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar29711651M. Derco4211911113
LAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar32118761M. Derco4181111113
LAug 10 · 11:00V. Rybar481111111142M. Derco48131356113
V. Rybar10
WOct 2 · 20:00V. Rybar1.6791111113Z. Luksa2.10114921LOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101WOct 2 · 18:00V. Rybar1.361111113T. Navrat3.008750LSep 17 · 09:00V. Rybar1.5094140M. Levicky2.501111163LSep 17 · 08:30M. Kaspar1.671111113V. Rybar2.102250LSep 17 · 07:30V. Rybar2.008830P. Banot1.731111113WSep 17 · 06:30M. Levicky2.005840V. Rybar1.731111113WSep 14 · 08:58M. Derco1.67118881V. Rybar2.1091111113LSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113LSep 14 · 07:00V. Rybar1.83108111152M. Kaspar1.83121186113
M. Derco10
WOct 2 · 20:30T. Navrat1.9185100M. Derco1.801111123WOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361LSep 26 · 17:06M. Blaha1.631211113M. Derco2.1310560LSep 26 · 16:00R. Adamczyk1.671113113M. Derco2.1051140LSep 26 · 15:00M. Blaha1.531211116113M. Derco2.3814981182LSep 26 · 14:30M. Derco1.25519170Z. Luksa3.751121193WSep 21 · 09:30M. Derco1.6111111110113J. Toth2.2097131242LSep 14 · 08:58M. Derco1.67118881V. Rybar2.1091111113WSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Derco
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