TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Kurliuk vs Oleksandr Levytskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210118611119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:48 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Kurliuk above · Oleksandr Levytskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 66.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Kurliuk 11–4 Oleksandr Levytskyi Oleksandr Levytskyi has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4866.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurliuk 1328 vs Levytskyi 1261
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurliuk 80% vs Levytskyi 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurliuk 60% vs Levytskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurliuk +2 · Levytskyi +4
Levytskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Kurliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Levytskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurliuk 1.444 / Levytskyi 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kurliuk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240295
Kurliuk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 51 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Levytskyi2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog27% won 17 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurliuk9wins
AwayLevytskyi1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurliuk87.5%7 of 8
AwayLevytskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurliuk8Levytskyi2n = 10Kurliuk took 8 of 10
S2Kurliuk4Levytskyi6n = 10Levytskyi took 6 of 10
S3Kurliuk5Levytskyi4n = 9Kurliuk took 5 of 9
S4Kurliuk7Levytskyi0n = 7Kurliuk took 7 of 7
S5Kurliuk4Levytskyi1n = 5Kurliuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurliukLevytskyiK − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.036.6+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurliukLevytskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 290 vs 131 / 29651.4%44.3%149 / 290 vs 131 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukKurliuk 1.44/Levytskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 30 · 06:30V. Kurliuk3911116113O. Levytskyi27191161
LJun 2 · 16:30V. Kurliuk4513761182O. Levytskyi501111116113
WMar 31 · 14:00V. Kurliuk47117711113O. Levytskyi4361111692
WDec 3 · 15:00V. Kurliuk47681111113O. Levytskyi4011115852
WNov 26 · 16:30V. Kurliuk351311113O. Levytskyi2311390
WNov 2 · 16:00V. Kurliuk531381011113O. Levytskyi46111112752
WOct 19 · 16:30V. Kurliuk511061111133O. Levytskyi46121166112
WOct 12 · 16:36V. Kurliuk3711411113O. Levytskyi31911651
WOct 4 · 08:30V. Kurliuk331111113O. Levytskyi238780
V. Kurliuk10
WOct 4 · 14:00V. Kurliuk3.401111113I. Sorochan1.308940WSep 23 · 09:00V. Kurliuk3.40119117113M. Pohorilyi1.3091131192WSep 23 · 08:00M. Zavoloka2.63651151V. Kurliuk1.4411119113LSep 23 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.6191111113V. Kurliuk2.20119561WSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113WSep 17 · 09:59M. Zavoloka2.10391181V. Kurliuk1.6711117113LSep 17 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.201311113V. Kurliuk1.6111480WSep 17 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.3011117113V. Matviichuk3.40741161LSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:00V. Kurliuk2.251111113M. Zavoloka1.575870
O. Levytskyi10
LOct 4 · 14:30A. Lysyi3.001112463O. Levytskyi1.368101151WOct 4 · 12:00V. Simchuk1.2287111112O. Levytskyi4.00111169113WOct 2 · 17:31A. Danylov2.759680O. Levytskyi1.401111113WOct 2 · 16:30S. Zherykhin2.25611751O. Levytskyi1.5711911113WOct 2 · 15:00O. Levytskyi1.91101111113A. Danylov1.80123531LOct 2 · 13:30O. Levytskyi1.73114681R. Sveshnykov2.0081111113LOct 2 · 12:00O. Levytskyi2.107411101S. Honcharenko1.6711118123WSep 27 · 16:59S. Honcharenko1.61610111152O. Levytskyi2.20111245113WSep 27 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.83813581O. Levytskyi1.83111111113LSep 27 · 14:30O. Levytskyi2.25121111772S. Honcharenko1.571091311103
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