TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Ogrocki vs Bartolomej Jonas 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811711911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartolomej Jonas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Bartolomej Jonas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Bartolomej Jonas at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 2–5 Bartolomej Jonas Tomas Ogrocki has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jonas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Jonas
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1479 vs Jonas 1343
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 80% vs Jonas 40%
Ogrocki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 70% vs Jonas 50%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Jonas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Jonas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jonas form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.833 / Jonas 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jonas)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13232449
Ogrocki1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Jonas1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeOgrocki2wins
AwayJonas5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderJonas leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrockin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJonas80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki2Jonas5n = 7Jonas took 5 of 7
S2Ogrocki3Jonas4n = 7Jonas took 4 of 7
S3Ogrocki3Jonas4n = 7Jonas took 4 of 7
S4Ogrocki2Jonas3n = 5Jonas took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricOgrockiJonasO − JBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match35.338.4−3.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 516 vs 37 / 8648.3%43%249 / 516 vs 37 / 86Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JonasOgrocki 1.83/Jonas 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jonas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jonas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJun 26 · 19:15T. Ogrocki3612112113B. Jonas321071141
LJun 11 · 19:15T. Ogrocki217590B. Jonas331111113
LMay 30 · 16:45T. Ogrocki258890B. Jonas331111113
LMay 30 · 13:45T. Ogrocki34861191B. Jonas4111118113
LMay 17 · 20:55T. Ogrocki391191091B. Jonas4171112113
LMay 17 · 18:15T. Ogrocki49511157112B. Jonas551171311133
WMay 9 · 07:10T. Ogrocki43101111113B. Jonas34128771
T. Ogrocki10
WOct 2 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.3011118113R. Benesz3.40781191LOct 1 · 21:08T. Ogrocki2.50117881K. Przeczek1.5091111113WOct 1 · 19:40K. Przeczek1.7311991172T. Ogrocki2.00911113113WOct 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.109101181T. Ogrocki1.6711123113WOct 1 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.611111129113I. Jemelka2.2082141152LSep 26 · 17:19T. Ogrocki1.801189111J. Przybyla1.9181111133WSep 26 · 16:15M. Lorenc1.671181081T. Ogrocki2.1081112113WSep 26 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.671291213113J. Przybyla2.101011141192WSep 26 · 13:45V. Reska1.40111111882T. Ogrocki2.75613911113LSep 25 · 20:40M. Henzel3.40991111113T. Ogrocki1.3011117182
B. Jonas10
LOct 2 · 18:10D. Stefek1.831111113B. Jonas1.839850WAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681WAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113LAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113WAug 29 · 17:15F. Mandrysz1.7711951292B. Jonas1.877111110113LAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.10881171B. Jonas1.6711113113WAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113
Upcoming Matches
T. Ogrocki
Nothing scheduled
B. Jonas
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