TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Henzel vs Tomas Ogrocki 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911911117111118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Henzel above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Michal Henzel 4–4 Tomas Ogrocki Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Henzel beat Ogrocki 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henzel 1449 vs Ogrocki 1413
Henzel
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henzel 60% vs Ogrocki 40%
Henzel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henzel 40% vs Ogrocki 60%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henzel -2 · Ogrocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenzel 3.40 / Ogrocki 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Ogrocki)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13196818
Henzel3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 5 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Ogrocki1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 69 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it74% 49 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHenzel4wins
AwayOgrocki4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHenzel66.7%2 of 3
AwayOgrocki60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henzel3Ogrocki5n = 8Ogrocki took 5 of 8
S2Henzel4Ogrocki4n = 8split evenly
S3Henzel6Ogrocki2n = 8Henzel took 6 of 8
S4Henzel3Ogrocki3n = 6split evenly
S5Henzel1Ogrocki2n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricHenzelOgrockiH − OBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match41.239.4+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenzelOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 112 vs 242 / 50744.6%47.7%50 / 112 vs 242 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiHenzel 3.40/Ogrocki 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Henzel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 25 · 20:40M. Henzel51991111113T. Ogrocki3811117182
WSep 25 · 17:45M. Henzel4111118113T. Ogrocki35891171
LJul 1 · 18:10M. Henzel31119110T. Ogrocki371311133
WJun 30 · 16:55M. Henzel3851111113T. Ogrocki30119641
LJun 30 · 14:45M. Henzel4621611892T. Ogrocki531114611113
LJun 26 · 19:45M. Henzel378101181T. Ogrocki4111127113
LJun 5 · 19:10M. Henzel5013911892T. Ogrocki521111811113
WDec 5 · 18:40M. Henzel361411113T. Ogrocki2912890
M. Henzel10
LSep 25 · 19:45M. Henzel1.6710750J. Przybyla2.101211113LSep 25 · 18:45M. Henzel2.10811761O. Vaclahovsky1.6711911113WSep 25 · 17:45M. Henzel2.0011118113T. Ogrocki1.73891171WSep 16 · 16:40D. Branny1.8311811672M. Henzel1.83411811113WSep 16 · 16:10V. Konvicka2.00101130M. Henzel1.731213113LSep 16 · 15:10M. Henzel2.00116891L. Dzida1.7371111113LSep 16 · 13:40D. Branny1.8351112113M. Henzel1.831141071LAug 7 · 20:48M. Henzel2.2011117712A. Kanak1.61761111113WAug 7 · 19:45A. Kanak1.8011119682M. Henzel1.91591111113LAug 7 · 19:15J. Vanous2.3811118113M. Henzel1.53971141
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 25 · 20:15O. Vaclahovsky2.259590T. Ogrocki1.571111113LSep 25 · 19:15T. Ogrocki1.73641181J. Przybyla2.0011116113LSep 25 · 17:45M. Henzel2.0011118113T. Ogrocki1.73891171WSep 25 · 13:20O. Skvor1.619111051T. Ogrocki2.2011612113LSep 25 · 12:15M. Janik1.8315311113T. Ogrocki1.831311781LSep 25 · 11:15T. Ogrocki2.00121191182O. Skvor1.731013118113WSep 25 · 09:45A. Drozd1.611221071T. Ogrocki2.20101112113WSep 24 · 21:10T. Ogrocki1.5061211113P. Jokiel2.501110491WSep 24 · 19:40J. Vanous2.105590T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 24 · 19:10P. Jokiel2.63121178122T. Ogrocki1.441091111143
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