TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139335
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Henzel
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611811911––
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Henzel above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Henzel 1–1 Lukas Dzida Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:27What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henzel 1378 vs Dzida 1550
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henzel 20% vs Dzida 40%
Dzida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henzel 50% vs Dzida 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Henzel -2 · Dzida -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenzel 2.00 / Dzida 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13139335
Henzel2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog27% won 6 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Dzida1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHenzel1wins
AwayDzida1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHenzelDzidaH − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match40.043.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenzelDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 105 vs 111 / 20643.8%53.9%46 / 105 vs 111 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaHenzel 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJun 12 · 12:45M. Henzel331061161L. Dzida4212118113
WJun 12 · 12:10M. Henzel47811611113L. Dzida4411511982
M. Henzel10
LSep 16 · 13:40D. Branny1.8351112113M. Henzel1.831141071LAug 7 · 20:48M. Henzel2.2011117712A. Kanak1.61761111113WAug 7 · 19:45A. Kanak1.8011119682M. Henzel1.91591111113LAug 7 · 19:15J. Vanous2.3811118113M. Henzel1.53971141LAug 7 · 18:15M. Henzel1.739550O. Skvor2.001111113LAug 5 · 21:08M. Henzel1.73115771D. Branny2.0041111113WAug 5 · 20:15M. Henzel1.831111113F. Theodor1.839620WAug 5 · 18:45J. Volny1.8381361182M. Henzel1.831111117113WAug 5 · 18:15D. Branny2.00109111192M. Henzel1.73121184113WJul 1 · 20:40D. Osvald1.50511951M. Henzel2.5011811113
L. Dzida10
WSep 16 · 15:40D. Branny2.00811681L. Dzida1.7311911113LSep 16 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73541191V. Konvicka2.0011114113WSep 16 · 12:40L. Dzida1.83581111123T. Kindl1.83111189102LSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec1.831111133L. Dzida1.8399110WSep 16 · 11:10L. Dzida1.9111611113T. Kindl1.80711831LSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171WSep 14 · 09:15R. Sedlacek1.61116391L. Dzida2.2071111113WSep 14 · 08:15L. Lasota2.005990L. Dzida1.731111113LSep 14 · 07:15L. Dzida1.8356100R. Sedlacek1.831111123WSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113
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