TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139308
Played Sep 16Finished
Daniel Branny
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111141210117––
Michal Henzel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Henzel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Branny above · Michal Henzel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Henzel at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Branny 2–4 Michal Henzel Daniel Branny has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:26What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Henzel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Henzel
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Branny 1515 vs Henzel 1386
Branny
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Branny 60% vs Henzel 20%
Branny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Branny 50% vs Henzel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Branny -1 · Henzel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Henzel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henzel form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBranny 1.83 / Henzel 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Henzel)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13139308
Branny1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Henzel1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBranny2wins
AwayHenzel4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderHenzel leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrannyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHenzel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Branny1Henzel5n = 6Henzel took 5 of 6
S2Branny5Henzel1n = 6Branny took 5 of 6
S3Branny3Henzel3n = 6split evenly
S4Branny3Henzel2n = 5Branny took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBrannyHenzelB − HBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match40.240.3−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrannyHenzelBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 332 vs 46 / 10451.8%44.2%172 / 332 vs 46 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenzelBranny 1.83/Henzel 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Henzel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Branny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 5 · 21:08D. Branny3741111113M. Henzel30115771
LAug 5 · 18:15D. Branny50109111192M. Henzel46121184113
LApr 1 · 19:15D. Branny371511651M. Henzel4717811113
WMar 21 · 19:40D. Branny361311123M. Henzel28117100
LDec 27 · 19:40D. Branny34911861M. Henzel4211911113
LDec 5 · 20:40D. Branny47101171182M. Henzel49126119113
D. Branny10
LSep 16 · 14:40D. Branny1.83118421V. Konvicka1.8351111113LSep 10 · 17:10D. Branny1.61751191L. Lasota2.2011119113WSep 10 · 16:10J. Przybyla1.739940D. Branny2.001111113WSep 10 · 15:10D. Branny1.83611117113R. Solle1.8311941182WSep 10 · 13:40L. Lasota1.731194171D. Branny2.0071111193LSep 7 · 20:40D. Branny1.671166131A. Cizek2.1041111153LSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990WSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870LSep 7 · 17:40A. Kanak1.531111113D. Branny2.384990WSep 1 · 20:45J. Przybyla1.738750D. Branny2.001111113
M. Henzel10
LAug 7 · 20:48M. Henzel2.2011117712A. Kanak1.61761111113WAug 7 · 19:45A. Kanak1.8011119682M. Henzel1.91591111113LAug 7 · 19:15J. Vanous2.3811118113M. Henzel1.53971141LAug 7 · 18:15M. Henzel1.739550O. Skvor2.001111113LAug 5 · 21:08M. Henzel1.73115771D. Branny2.0041111113WAug 5 · 20:15M. Henzel1.831111113F. Theodor1.839620WAug 5 · 18:45J. Volny1.8381361182M. Henzel1.831111117113WAug 5 · 18:15D. Branny2.00109111192M. Henzel1.73121184113WJul 1 · 20:40D. Osvald1.50511951M. Henzel2.5011811113WJul 1 · 20:10M. Henzel1.5781111113J. Vanous2.25114961
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