TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Jokiel vs Tomas Ogrocki 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101197118111214
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 105 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 68.5%
105 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 12–29 Tomas Ogrocki Patrik Jokiel has won 12 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-29 in 41
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 17 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1291 vs Ogrocki 1453
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 60% vs Ogrocki 80%
Ogrocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 50% vs Ogrocki 80%
Ogrocki
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel +1 · Ogrocki +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.63 / Ogrocki 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Ogrocki)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13188635
Jokiel2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 74 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back36% 28 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Ogrocki1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 47 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel2wins
AwayOgrocki8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokieln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOgrocki77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel1Ogrocki9n = 10Ogrocki took 9 of 10
S2Jokiel3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S3Jokiel6Ogrocki4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S4Jokiel2Ogrocki5n = 7Ogrocki took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielOgrockiJ − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.739.3−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 464 vs 236 / 49645.7%47.6%212 / 464 vs 236 / 496Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiJokiel 2.63/Ogrocki 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 21:15P. Jokiel1941050T. Ogrocki341112113
LSep 22 · 19:10P. Jokiel2154120T. Ogrocki361111143
LSep 20 · 18:10P. Jokiel4111511772T. Ogrocki47911511113
LSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel337101151T. Ogrocki4111127113
LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel38813891T. Ogrocki44111111113
LSep 9 · 17:15P. Jokiel3610101151T. Ogrocki4312128113
LSep 9 · 15:10P. Jokiel36791191T. Ogrocki3911116113
WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel44111111113T. Ogrocki35135891
WAug 31 · 19:10P. Jokiel46101114113T. Ogrocki411281291
LAug 30 · 16:38P. Jokiel238780T. Ogrocki331111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 24 · 21:10T. Ogrocki1.5061211113P. Jokiel2.501110491WSep 24 · 20:10R. Benesz2.00551161P. Jokiel1.7311111113WSep 24 · 17:40J. Vanous1.834680P. Jokiel1.831111113LSep 22 · 21:15T. Ogrocki1.441112113P. Jokiel2.6341050WSep 22 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8311114892P. Jokiel1.83991111113LSep 22 · 19:10P. Jokiel2.2554120T. Ogrocki1.571111143WSep 22 · 17:40J. Vanous1.734670P. Jokiel2.001111113LSep 21 · 12:40P. Jokiel1.24129118112M. Klimenta3.801011911133LSep 21 · 12:38P. Jokiel1.25129118112M. Kliment3.751011911133WSep 21 · 12:10M. Kliment3.40391161P. Jokiel1.3011117113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 25 · 20:40M. Henzel3.40991111113T. Ogrocki1.3011117182WSep 25 · 20:15O. Vaclahovsky2.259590T. Ogrocki1.571111113LSep 25 · 19:15T. Ogrocki1.73641181J. Przybyla2.0011116113LSep 25 · 17:45M. Henzel2.0011118113T. Ogrocki1.73891171WSep 25 · 13:20O. Skvor1.619111051T. Ogrocki2.2011612113LSep 25 · 12:15M. Janik1.8315311113T. Ogrocki1.831311781LSep 25 · 11:15T. Ogrocki2.00121191182O. Skvor1.731013118113WSep 24 · 21:10T. Ogrocki1.5061211113P. Jokiel2.501110491WSep 22 · 21:15T. Ogrocki1.441112113P. Jokiel2.6341050WSep 22 · 19:10P. Jokiel2.2554120T. Ogrocki1.571111143
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