TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Bartolomej Jonas 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118115––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Bartolomej Jonas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 1–0 Bartolomej Jonas Bartolomej Jonas has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jonas
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1401 vs Jonas 1343
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Jonas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Jonas 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Jonas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.833 / Jonas 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13231970
Stefek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jonas1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 33 days ago (Aug 30) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStefek1wins
AwayJonas0wins
Stefek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStefekJonasS − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.022.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 113 vs 37 / 8649.6%43%56 / 113 vs 37 / 86Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.83/Jonas 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 2 · 18:10D. Stefek331111113B. Jonas229850
D. Stefek10
LOct 2 · 19:10R. Benesz2.381111159113D. Stefek1.53513131152LOct 1 · 13:15D. Stefek1.91911611112P. Chlad1.80116115133WOct 1 · 11:45P. Chlad1.6191311682D. Stefek2.201111511113WOct 1 · 11:15L. Krupnik Jr2.0010630D. Stefek1.731211113WOct 1 · 10:15D. Stefek1.61491111113P. Sturma2.2011118762LOct 1 · 08:53D. Stefek4.508111141P. Chlad1.1711138113LOct 1 · 08:15O. Vaclahovsky1.571012138113D. Stefek2.251210111182LOct 1 · 07:15D. Stefek1.9151111742J. Matus1.80117711113WOct 1 · 05:45P. Chlad1.579111113102D. Stefek2.25112915123LSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek1.5078111192R. Zajac2.50111179113
B. Jonas10
WOct 2 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.83118791B. Jonas1.8391111113WAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681WAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113LAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113WAug 29 · 17:15F. Mandrysz1.7711951292B. Jonas1.877111110113LAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.10881171B. Jonas1.6711113113WAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113
Upcoming Matches
D. Stefek
Nothing scheduled
B. Jonas
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.