TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Dominik Stefek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 53 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 3–3 Dominik Stefek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 11:1354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik Jr 1387 vs Stefek 1373
Krupnik Jr
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik Jr 60% vs Stefek 40%
Krupnik Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik Jr 50% vs Stefek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik Jr -1 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik Jr 2.00 / Stefek 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krupnik Jr)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13225006
Krupnik Jr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 84 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back34% 26 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Stefek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it61% 14 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKrupnik Jr3wins
AwayStefek3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik Jrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik Jr2Stefek4n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S2Krupnik Jr2Stefek4n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S3Krupnik Jr3Stefek3n = 6split evenly
S4Krupnik Jr5Stefek1n = 6Krupnik Jr took 5 of 6
S5Krupnik Jr2Stefek2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKrupnik JrStefekK − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match43.743.70.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnik JrStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 473 vs 53 / 10953.3%48.6%252 / 473 vs 53 / 109Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Krupnik JrKrupnik Jr 2.00/Stefek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 27 · 13:15L. Krupnik Jr4111811113D. Stefek31211991
LAug 27 · 11:10L. Krupnik Jr4241181452D. Stefek511161112113
LAug 20 · 14:40L. Krupnik Jr46119111142D. Stefek43131144113
LAug 16 · 17:45L. Krupnik Jr331151161D. Stefek4381113113
WAug 11 · 13:10L. Krupnik Jr494111112113D. Stefek46111361062
WAug 11 · 09:45L. Krupnik Jr51811911123D. Stefek48119117102
L. Krupnik Jr10
LOct 1 · 12:15P. Sturma2.2051111123L. Krupnik Jr1.611166101LOct 1 · 09:45P. Chlad1.801111123L. Krupnik Jr1.9157100WSep 27 · 21:09L. Krupnik Jr1.91911118113M. Dolezal1.8011781172WSep 27 · 19:40L. Krupnik Jr1.8311117113J. Oleksik1.83991161LSep 27 · 18:40L. Krupnik Jr1.67611681M. Dolezal2.1011811113WSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880LSep 26 · 09:13I. Jemelka1.361111113L. Krupnik Jr3.009970WSep 26 · 08:10P. Chvojka1.53681181L. Krupnik Jr2.3811115113LSep 26 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.50711281I. Jemelka1.5011911113WSep 26 · 05:40J. Sindler1.50912511102L. Krupnik Jr2.501110116123
D. Stefek10
WOct 1 · 11:45P. Chlad1.6191311682D. Stefek2.201111511113WOct 1 · 10:15D. Stefek1.61491111113P. Sturma2.2011118762LOct 1 · 08:53D. Stefek4.508111141P. Chlad1.1711138113LOct 1 · 08:15O. Vaclahovsky1.571012138113D. Stefek2.251210111182LOct 1 · 07:15D. Stefek1.9151111742J. Matus1.80117711113WOct 1 · 05:45P. Chlad1.579111113102D. Stefek2.25112915123LSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek1.5078111192R. Zajac2.50111179113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus1.678116121D. Stefek2.1011811143WSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113WSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681
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