TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlad vs Dominik Stefek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111211913151012
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:41 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 103 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Petr Chlad at 58.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlad 1–0 Dominik Stefek Dominik Stefek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4158.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlad
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1395 vs Stefek 1383
Chlad
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad -3 · Stefek -1
Chlad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Chlad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.571 / Stefek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chlad)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224353
Chlad1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 37 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 21 of 30
Stefek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 28 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back28% 7 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChlad1wins
AwayStefek0wins
Chlad leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChladStefekC − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match44.037.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 286 vs 51 / 10448.6%49%139 / 286 vs 51 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChladChlad 1.57/Stefek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 2 · 17:38P. Chlad44111111113D. Stefek37139961
P. Chlad10
LOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LSep 28 · 08:55P. Chvojka1.611111113P. Chlad2.206560LSep 28 · 07:45O. Coufal2.2031111113P. Chlad1.61116681LSep 28 · 07:15P. Chvojka1.8011711113P. Chlad1.91911751WSep 28 · 06:15P. Chlad1.5031112113P. Jokiel2.501121041WSep 23 · 09:13P. Chlad1.801111113I. Jemelka1.916840WSep 23 · 08:15A. Strelec2.0010690P. Chlad1.731211113WSep 23 · 07:15P. Chlad1.73711311113I. Jemelka2.0011611982WSep 23 · 05:45J. Sindler1.6111119572P. Chlad2.20871111113LSep 17 · 09:15J. Sindler1.60511136113P. Chlad2.20119111192
D. Stefek10
LSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek1.5078111192R. Zajac2.50111179113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus1.678116121D. Stefek2.1011811143WSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113WSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681LSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek1.80714101392J. Sindler1.9111121211113LSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113WSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123
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