TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlad vs Oldrich Vaclahovsky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119711118811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlad 4–6 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Petr Chlad has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chlad
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Vaclahovsky
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1375 vs Vaclahovsky 1442
Vaclahovsky
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 20% vs Vaclahovsky 40%
Vaclahovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 50% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad -4 · Vaclahovsky -2
Chlad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vaclahovsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclahovsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.80 / Vaclahovsky 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13224734
Chlad1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 37 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 21 of 30
Vaclahovsky1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 31 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlad4wins
AwayVaclahovsky6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVaclahovsky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlad66.7%2 of 3
AwayVaclahovsky71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlad3Vaclahovsky7n = 10Vaclahovsky took 7 of 10
S2Chlad6Vaclahovsky4n = 10Chlad took 6 of 10
S3Chlad6Vaclahovsky4n = 10Chlad took 6 of 10
S4Chlad4Vaclahovsky5n = 9Vaclahovsky took 5 of 9
S5Chlad1Vaclahovsky2n = 3Vaclahovsky took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChladVaclahovskyC − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.740.6−0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 288 vs 130 / 27148.3%48%139 / 288 vs 130 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyChlad 1.80/Vaclahovsky 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad4691171182O. Vaclahovsky50119118113
LJul 19 · 12:15P. Chlad34117971O. Vaclahovsky4071111113
WJul 11 · 20:43P. Chlad331111113O. Vaclahovsky268990
WJul 11 · 18:40P. Chlad3961111113O. Vaclahovsky31119381
LJun 27 · 06:10P. Chlad321031271O. Vaclahovsky44121110113
LJun 7 · 07:40P. Chlad27441181O. Vaclahovsky4111118113
WFeb 12 · 06:45P. Chlad48121411113O. Vaclahovsky371412831
LJan 1 · 22:15P. Chlad4351111972O. Vaclahovsky45114811113
WJan 1 · 19:15P. Chlad521161212113O. Vaclahovsky43611141022
LJan 1 · 16:45P. Chlad438117171O. Vaclahovsky4911811193
P. Chlad10
LOct 1 · 05:45P. Chlad1.579111113102D. Stefek2.25112915123LSep 28 · 08:55P. Chvojka1.611111113P. Chlad2.206560LSep 28 · 07:45O. Coufal2.2031111113P. Chlad1.61116681LSep 28 · 07:15P. Chvojka1.8011711113P. Chlad1.91911751WSep 28 · 06:15P. Chlad1.5031112113P. Jokiel2.501121041WSep 23 · 09:13P. Chlad1.801111113I. Jemelka1.916840WSep 23 · 08:15A. Strelec2.0010690P. Chlad1.731211113WSep 23 · 07:15P. Chlad1.73711311113I. Jemelka2.0011611982WSep 23 · 05:45J. Sindler1.6111119572P. Chlad2.20871111113LSep 17 · 09:15J. Sindler1.60511136113P. Chlad2.20119111192
O. Vaclahovsky10
LOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus2.10411811123O. Vaclahovsky1.67117113102LSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 12:15J. Sindler1.67791141O. Vaclahovsky2.1011119113WSep 29 · 11:15O. Vaclahovsky1.7391111113M. Kliment2.00113911LSep 29 · 09:45A. Drozd1.806111011113O. Vaclahovsky1.9111512682WSep 26 · 13:20P. Chvojka1.83119541O. Vaclahovsky1.8741111113WSep 26 · 11:40O. Vaclahovsky1.731091111113A. Strelec2.0012117872LSep 26 · 10:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801011971P. Chvojka1.9112911113WSep 26 · 09:40O. Vaclahovsky2.0013115113J. Jnr1.731191161WSep 25 · 21:10O. Vaclahovsky1.8311117113J. Przybyla1.83861181
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