TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Hitzger vs Dominik Lengal 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Jakub Hitzger
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116511711––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Hitzger to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Hitzger above · Dominik Lengal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Jakub Hitzger at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Hitzger 5–5 Dominik Lengal Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hitzger
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hitzger 1785 vs Lengal 1798
Lengal
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hitzger 60% vs Lengal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hitzger 60% vs Lengal 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hitzger +2 · Lengal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hitzger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHitzger 1.80 / Lengal 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hitzger)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229935
Hitzger1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 17 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Lengal1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 7 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHitzger5wins
AwayLengal5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHitzger100%5 of 5
AwayLengal100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hitzger5Lengal5n = 10split evenly
S2Hitzger4Lengal6n = 10Lengal took 6 of 10
S3Hitzger6Lengal4n = 10Hitzger took 6 of 10
S4Hitzger3Lengal4n = 7Lengal took 4 of 7
S5Hitzger2Lengal1n = 3Hitzger took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHitzgerLengalH − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.036.6+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHitzgerLengalBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 111 vs 180 / 29264.9%61.6%72 / 111 vs 180 / 292Avg sets wonper match2.42.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HitzgerHitzger 1.80/Lengal 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hitzger · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lengal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 17:50J. Hitzger3911116113D. Lengal34891161
WJun 3 · 16:05J. Hitzger331111113D. Lengal228860
LJun 1 · 12:05J. Hitzger31671171D. Lengal3911116113
WMar 27 · 14:10J. Hitzger351311113D. Lengal2611690
LMar 27 · 13:05J. Hitzger30551191D. Lengal3811115113
WMar 20 · 13:05J. Hitzger48111178113D. Lengal4486111182
LMar 13 · 22:35J. Hitzger2241260D. Lengal361114113
LMar 13 · 21:05J. Hitzger341081151D. Lengal3612112113
LJan 23 · 17:05J. Hitzger5099131182D. Lengal491111115113
WDec 17 · 16:05J. Hitzger48127711113D. Lengal42101111372
J. Hitzger10
WOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.73111211113T. Bartik2.00614831WOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123LSep 28 · 08:05J. Hitzger1.577101191O. Polak2.2511127113WSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152LSep 26 · 13:55J. Hitzger1.9111991192O. Stehlik1.80811115113LSep 26 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.73112971O. Stehlik2.0021111113WSep 26 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.801111113O. Polak1.919890WSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071
D. Lengal10
WOct 2 · 11:35M. Holub3.5065111192D. Lengal1.28111188113WOct 2 · 10:35D. Lengal2.001211113T. Bartik1.7310730LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112
Upcoming Matches
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