TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Hitzger vs Tomas Bartik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Jakub Hitzger
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161214118113––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Hitzger to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Hitzger above · Tomas Bartik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 76 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Jakub Hitzger at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Hitzger 6–7 Tomas Bartik Jakub Hitzger has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hitzger
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hitzger 1785 vs Bartik 1687
Hitzger
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hitzger 60% vs Bartik 20%
Hitzger
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hitzger 60% vs Bartik 30%
Hitzger
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hitzger +1 · Bartik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hitzger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHitzger 1.727 / Bartik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hitzger)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229960
Hitzger1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 17 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Bartik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 13 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHitzger4wins
AwayBartik6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHitzger100%3 of 3
AwayBartik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hitzger3Bartik7n = 10Bartik took 7 of 10
S2Hitzger4Bartik6n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S3Hitzger7Bartik3n = 10Hitzger took 7 of 10
S4Hitzger4Bartik5n = 9Bartik took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHitzgerBartikH − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.740.1−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHitzgerBartikBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 111 vs 189 / 32764.9%57.8%72 / 111 vs 189 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HitzgerHitzger 1.73/Bartik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hitzger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hitzger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger45111211113T. Bartik31614831
LJul 5 · 12:05J. Hitzger49811119102T. Bartik47116711123
LJun 23 · 16:05J. Hitzger34811691T. Bartik3711411113
WJun 12 · 12:05J. Hitzger4311115163T. Bartik398611141
LJun 1 · 10:05J. Hitzger2266100T. Bartik341111123
WMay 25 · 12:05J. Hitzger4111613113T. Bartik314111151
LMar 27 · 11:05J. Hitzger3961111111T. Bartik4511138133
LMar 21 · 21:05J. Hitzger375121461T. Bartik48111412113
WMar 13 · 20:05J. Hitzger4321314143T. Bartik46111112121
LJan 20 · 18:35J. Hitzger34491291T. Bartik43111110113
J. Hitzger10
LOct 2 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.80611571D. Lengal1.9111611113WOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123LSep 28 · 08:05J. Hitzger1.577101191O. Polak2.2511127113WSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152LSep 26 · 13:55J. Hitzger1.9111991192O. Stehlik1.80811115113LSep 26 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.73112971O. Stehlik2.0021111113WSep 26 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.801111113O. Polak1.919890WSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071
T. Bartik10
LOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik1.57117811M. Holub2.2531111113LOct 2 · 10:35D. Lengal2.001211113T. Bartik1.7310730WSep 30 · 17:15F. Karel1.5897100T. Bartik2.251111123LSep 30 · 16:05F. Karel1.831111113T. Bartik1.834880LSep 30 · 15:35T. Beran2.501181111113T. Bartik1.5081113862LSep 30 · 14:35T. Bartik1.67119781M. Mastera2.1071111113LSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:05T. Bartik1.731311123F. Karel2.00116100LSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123LSep 18 · 10:05T. Bartik1.671110691O. Polak2.1071211113
Upcoming Matches
J. Hitzger
T. Bartik
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