TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Derco vs Vaclav Rybar 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181134111210––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Rybar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Vaclav Rybar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 70 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Vaclav Rybar at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 4–1 Vaclav Rybar Vaclav Rybar has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rybar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Derco
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derco 1225 vs Rybar 1269
Rybar
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 0% vs Rybar 40%
Rybar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 30% vs Rybar 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco -5 · Rybar +1
Derco
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rybar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybar form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 2.00 / Rybar 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rybar)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228164
Derco2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 14 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back31% 5 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Rybar1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 15 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDerco4wins
AwayRybar1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderDerco leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerco75%3 of 4
AwayRybarn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco4Rybar1n = 5Derco took 4 of 5
S2Derco3Rybar2n = 5Derco took 3 of 5
S3Derco2Rybar3n = 5Rybar took 3 of 5
S4Derco3Rybar2n = 5Derco took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDercoRybarD − RBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.836.6+4.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoRybarBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 94 vs 24 / 4652.1%52.2%49 / 94 vs 24 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RybarDerco 2.00/Rybar 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rybar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco3811114123V. Rybar328311101
LSep 14 · 08:58M. Derco35118881V. Rybar4291111113
WSep 14 · 08:30M. Derco4211911113V. Rybar29711651
WAug 20 · 18:00M. Derco4181111113V. Rybar32118761
WAug 10 · 11:00M. Derco48131356113V. Rybar481111111142
M. Derco10
WOct 2 · 20:30T. Navrat1.9185100M. Derco1.801111123LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361LSep 26 · 17:06M. Blaha1.631211113M. Derco2.1310560LSep 26 · 16:00R. Adamczyk1.671113113M. Derco2.1051140LSep 26 · 15:00M. Blaha1.531211116113M. Derco2.3814981182LSep 26 · 14:30M. Derco1.25519170Z. Luksa3.751121193WSep 21 · 09:30M. Derco1.6111111110113J. Toth2.2097131242WSep 21 · 08:00M. Derco1.7311312113A. Kanak2.004111051LSep 21 · 07:30J. Toth2.7512612113M. Derco1.4010111091WSep 21 · 06:00M. Derco1.401111113Z. Luksa2.755950
V. Rybar10
WOct 2 · 20:00V. Rybar1.6791111113Z. Luksa2.10114921WOct 2 · 18:00V. Rybar1.361111113T. Navrat3.008750LSep 17 · 09:00V. Rybar1.5094140M. Levicky2.501111163LSep 17 · 08:30M. Kaspar1.671111113V. Rybar2.102250LSep 17 · 07:30V. Rybar2.008830P. Banot1.731111113WSep 17 · 06:30M. Levicky2.005840V. Rybar1.731111113WSep 14 · 08:58M. Derco1.67118881V. Rybar2.1091111113LSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113LSep 14 · 07:00V. Rybar1.83108111152M. Kaspar1.83121186113LSep 14 · 06:00M. Levicky2.00116118113V. Rybar1.7391161172
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