TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs Vaclav Nadvornik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9115111012––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:14 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Martin Cerny at 59.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 33–25 Vaclav Nadvornik Vaclav Nadvornik has won 25 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1459.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-25 in 58
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1794 vs Nadvornik 1748
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Nadvornik 80%
Nadvornik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 60% vs Nadvornik 90%
Nadvornik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Nadvornik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.571 / Nadvornik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cerny)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224753
Cerny1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 167 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it97% 83 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it85% 120 of 142
Nadvornik2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 14 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back31% 5 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny6wins
AwayNadvornik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%3 of 3
AwayNadvornik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny3Nadvornik7n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S2Cerny6Nadvornik4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny7Nadvornik3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Cerny4Nadvornik2n = 6Cerny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyNadvornikC − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.833.2+3.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 864 vs 171 / 31058.2%55.2%503 / 864 vs 171 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.57/Nadvornik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny2495100V. Nadvornik341111123
LMay 17 · 18:15M. Cerny33711961V. Nadvornik4111811113
WMay 17 · 16:25M. Cerny4391112113V. Nadvornik361191061
WMay 14 · 18:25M. Cerny3961111113V. Nadvornik33118681
WMay 14 · 17:25M. Cerny351311113V. Nadvornik2511680
LMay 13 · 10:40M. Cerny501010111182V. Nadvornik47121275113
WMay 13 · 08:25M. Cerny331111113V. Nadvornik134450
WMay 9 · 14:55M. Cerny4111811113V. Nadvornik28811721
LApr 30 · 13:48M. Cerny226880V. Nadvornik331111113
WApr 30 · 11:50M. Cerny48811117113V. Nadvornik4211941172
M. Cerny10
WOct 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky2.10713771M. Cerny1.67111111113LSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113LSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 11:55D. Bochnak1.8311119792M. Cerny1.83761111113WSep 28 · 11:25P. Vanek1.7311311972M. Cerny2.00911811113LSep 27 · 14:43M. Cerny1.83611741V. Benak1.8711711113WSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841WSep 27 · 11:55M. Cerny1.91119116113F. Strejc1.8061161172WSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172LSep 25 · 10:29O. Kadavy1.36158911113M. Cerny3.00131111502
V. Nadvornik10
LOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682LOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113WSep 22 · 14:05V. Nadvornik1.6091211113P. Benes2.201110861WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181WSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:20V. Nadvornik1.73116711113M. Brozek2.0091111982WSep 10 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.28116612113O. Fiklik3.15911111072WSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262WSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133
Upcoming Matches
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